#Foreign_Exchange_Market_Data_Update

Last week, the forex market was dictated by lingering concerns over the implementation of a landmark US tax bill and a string of bullish economic releases from the UK.

The greenback declined against a basket of major currencies, after the Senate Republicans forged a plan that would push the implementation of long-awaited US corporate tax cuts to 2019. Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York confirmed that William Dudley will step down as its President in the middle of next year, around six months earlier than scheduled. On the economic front, the US flash Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly dropped from a 13-year high in November. Moreover, first time claims for the US unemployment benefits climbed more-than-anticipated in the week ended 04 November, whereas JOLTs job openings unexpectedly rose in September. Moreover, the nation’s consumer credit rose in September.

The Pound ended the week on a stronger footing against the USD, after a string of upbeat economic reports from the UK painted a healthy picture of the nation’s economy. Data showed that monthly industrial production in Britain topped expectations in September, advancing at its quickest pace since December 2016, while manufacturing production posted its largest increase in 9 months in the same month, suggesting that the nation’s industrial sector will likely continue its strong performance in the fourth quarter. However, the nation’s construction output sharply retreated in September. Also, NIESR estimated that UK’s economy expanded 0.5% in the three months to October. Moreover, the nation’s total trade deficit surprisingly narrowed in September.

Meanwhile, political turmoil engulfing the UK Government intensified last week, after its International Development Secretary, Priti Patel resigned following controversy over her unauthorized meetings. Moreover, sixth round of Brexit negotiations produced little progress.

The Euro ended the week higher against the USD. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, stated that there is hardly any evidence that the central bank’s ultra-low monetary policy is undermining profitability of banks and added that various measures undertaken by the European banks has strengthened the EU banking sector. Separately, the ECB’s latest economic bulletin showed that the solid and broad-based economic recovery in the single currency region is likely to continue unabated into the second half of this year. Meanwhile, the European Commission predicted that economic growth in the Eurozone would accelerate at its fastest pace in a decade this year.

EURUSD

The EUR strengthened against the USD last week, closing 0.49% higher at 1.1665, after the Eurozone’s retail sales grew above market expectations on a monthly basis in September, while the region’s Sentix investor confidence index climbed more-than-anticipated in November. Meanwhile, the region’s final Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slid less than previously estimated in October. Separately, Germany’s seasonally adjusted factory orders showed an unexpected rise on a monthly basis in September, while seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-expected in the same month. However, the nation’s final services PMI was downwardly revised in October, while industrial production fell more-than-anticipated in September. Moreover, the nation’s construction PMI slightly dropped in October. The EUR hit a high of 1.1678 and a low of 1.1554 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.1587, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1508. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1711, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1756. Going ahead, market participants would focus on a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi, scheduled early this week. Further, the release of flash 3Q gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, final inflation figures as well as the ZEW economic sentiment index across the Eurozone, will garner significant amount of investor attention.

GBPUSD

During the previous week, the GBP traded 0.91% higher against the USD and ended at 1.3196, on the back of robust economic releases in Britain. Data revealed that UK’s monthly industrial as well as manufacturing production climbed above market consensus in September. On the contrary, the nation’s construction output retreated more-than-estimated on a monthly basis in September. Another set of data revealed that the nation’s total trade deficit surprisingly narrowed in September. Further, leading think tanker, NIESR estimated that UK’s GDP rose 0.5% in the three months to October. Also, the nation’s Halifax house price index rose above market expectations in October. Meanwhile, the nation’s RICS house price balance rose less-than-expected in October, whereas the BRC like-for-like sales surprisingly fell in the same month. The pair traded at a high of 1.3230 and a low of 1.3059 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3094, followed by 1.2991, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.3265, followed by 1.3333. This week, investors would closely monitor Britain’s crucial inflation and retail sales numbers coupled with the ILO unemployment rate data. Moreover, a speech by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, would also attract market attention.

USDJPY

During the previous week, the USD traded 0.47% lower against the JPY and ended at 113.53. Macroeconomic data showed that Japan’s Nikkei services PMI jumped in October. Further, the nation’s Eco-Watchers Survey for the current situation unexpectedly rose in October, while the Survey for the future outlook climbed above market consensus in the same month. Additionally, the nation’s trade surplus (BOP basis) widened more-than-anticipated in September. On the contrary, the nation’s tertiary industry index sharply dropped in September, while machinery orders fell more-than-expected in the same month. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) September policy meeting revealed that policymakers remained confident that Japan’s economy continued to proceed at an acceptable pace. Separately, according to the BoJ’s summary of opinions report of its October meeting, board members debated calls from one of its board members to target the longer end of the yield curve. Also, officials showed reluctance to loosen monetary conditions further, despite sluggish inflation. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 114.73 and a low of 113.09. The pair is expected to find support at 112.84, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.48, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 115.42. Looking forward, investors would closely monitor Japan’s flash 3Q GDP numbers, set to release this week, to gauge strength in the Japanese economy.

USDCHF

The USD fell against the CHF last week, closing 0.46% lower at 0.9961. Macroeconomic data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland rose 0.7% on a yearly basis in October, meeting analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 3.1% in October, in line with market expectations. The pair traded at a high of 1.0029 and a low of 0.9922 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9910, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9863. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0017, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0077. Moving ahead, investors will eye Switzerland’s producer and import price index, set to release this week.

USDCAD

The USD fell against the CAD last week, closing 0.64% lower at 1.2682. The Canadian Dollar gained ground against the USD, following a series of upbeat Canadian economic reports. Data showed that Canada’s seasonally adjusted housing starts registered an unexpected rise in October, while the nation’s building permits rose for the first time in three months in September. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI rose more-than-expected in October, while the new house price index rose as expected in September. Separately, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, expressed confidence that inflation will return to the central bank’s 2.0% target, as fundamental factors are continuing to support price growth. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2820 and a low of 1.2666. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2623 and first resistance at 1.2777. The second support is expected at 1.2567 and second resistance at 1.2875. Ahead in the week, investors would direct their attention to Canada’s crucial inflation figures.

AUDUSD

Last week, the AUD traded 0.14% higher against the USD and closed at 0.7661. Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its latest policy meeting, decided to keep its cash rate steady at 1.50%, citing weakness in inflation and slowdown in the housing market. The central bank kept its forecast for the nation’s economic growth largely unchanged, while expecting a gradual rise in consumer prices in the coming months. However, the central bank remained concerned about the outlook for household spending. Separately, the RBA, in its monetary policy statement, slightly lowered Australia’s economic growth outlook, expecting the Australian economy to post a growth of 2.75% in mid-2018, from an earlier projection of 3.0%. Further, inflation is estimated to rise to 2.0% by June 2018 and 2.25% by the end of 2019. On the macro front, Australia’s AiG performance of construction index eased in October, while seasonally adjusted home loan approvals unexpectedly declined on a monthly basis in September. The pair traded at a high of 0.7701 and a low of 0.7627 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7626, followed by 0.7589, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7700, followed by 0.7737. Going ahead, traders would focus on Australia’s unemployment rate, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence data, all scheduled to release this week.

Gold

Gold traded 0.41% higher during the previous week, closing at USD1275.07 per ounce, as disappointment that a landmark US tax overhaul may be delayed until 2019 led to a broad decline in the US Dollar. Last week, the precious metal traded at a high of USD1289.50 per ounce and a low of USD1266.40 per ounce. The precious metal is expected to find its first support at USD1265.10 per ounce and first resistance at USD1288.20 per ounce. The second support is expected at USD1254.20 per ounce and second resistance at USD1300.40 per ounce.

Crude Oil

Crude oil traded 1.98% higher in the previous week, closing at USD56.74 per barrel, after recent political developments in Saudi Arabia raised concerns over the nation’s crude supply. However, gains in crude oil prices were limited, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly rose 2.2 million barrels to 457.1 million barrels in the week ended 03 November, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude oil inventories declined by 1.6 million barrels in the same week. Meanwhile, the OPEC, in its 2017 World Oil Outlook, raised its projection for US shale oil production to 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2017 from a previous estimate of 4.1 million bpd. Moreover, the EIA projected that US crude oil production would likely increase by 720,000 bpd to 9.95 million bpd in 2018. The commodity hit a high of USD57.92 per barrel and a low of USD55.66 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD55.69 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD54.55 per barrel. The commodity is expected to find its first resistance at USD57.95 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD59.07 per barrel.

Traders , here are some excerpts from my bible, candlsticks analysis secret, happy trading.

"X - O Pára-quedista tem os olhos bem abertos e sabe utilizar ao máximo todos os recursos. Ágil como uma gazela, duro como aço, quando necessário, embora não o sendo, é capaz de agir como pirata, ou terrorista. Nada há que lhe seja impossível."

#Foreign_Exchange_Market_Data_Update

The forex market was dictated by the monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair.

The greenback gained ground against its major counterparts last week, after the Fed left its key interest rates unchanged but signaled that a rate hike in December remains on track. Moreover, Jerome Powell was appointed as the next Fed chair, who is considered to be as dovish as the current Fed chair, Janet Yellen. Meanwhile, the Republicans unveiled their tax cut proposal in the House of Representatives, intensifying concerns that the plan would raise huge federal deficits.

Macroeconomic data indicated that the US non-farm payrolls rose less-than-expected in October, while the nation’s unemployment rate fell to a record low of 17 years in the same month, adding to signs of robust labor market in the world’s largest economy. On the contrary, the US manufacturing sector cooled more-than-expected in October, whereas the nation’s trade deficit widened in September.

The Euro ended the week flat against the USD. Data showed that consumer prices in the Eurozone rose at a weaker-than-expected pace in October, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) was right to adopt a cautious approach to interest rate hike and delaying of its bond purchase programme at their October policy meeting. On the flipside, the Eurozone economy rose at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter at an annual rate of 2.50%. Moreover, the region’s jobless rate fell to a 9-year low in September, highlighting that the economy is adding jobs at a healthy pace. Additionally, the region’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose at its quickest pace since 2011 in October, suggesting that manufacturing sector will remain a key pillar of growth. Separately, consumer prices in Germany rose at a weaker-than-expected pace in October, whereas the nation’s unemployment rate remained steady as expected in October.

The Pound ended the week on a weaker footing against the USD, after the BoE raised its benchmark interest rates for the first time in a decade however, hinted that there will be only two more rate hikes till 2020, as uncertainties associated with Brexit are weighing on domestic activity.

The Yen lost ground against the USD last week, after the BoJ kept its key interest rates steady at -0.10% and pledged to carry on buying assets at a pace of ¥80 trillion a year. However, the central bank slightly trimmed its inflation forecast for the current year, and expects the inflation to reach 2.0% by 2020.

EURUSD

Last week, the EUR traded flat against the USD and closed at 1.1608.

Data indicated that the Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP) advanced more-than-expected in the third quarter, whereas the region’s consumer price index (CPI) grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in October. Moreover, the region’s unemployment rate surprisingly declined in September.

On the macro front, Eurozone’s industrial confidence rose above expectations in October, while the region’s consumer confidence remained steady in the same month.

Separately, Germany’s CPI grew less-than expected in October, whereas the nation’s unemployment rate remained steady as anticipated in the same month. Meanwhile, the nation’s manufacturing sector surprisingly improved in October, while the nation’s retail sales advanced in September.

The pair traded at a high of 1.1690 and a low of 1.1598 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.1574, followed by 1.1540, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.1666, followed by 1.1724.                                                          

This week, traders will closely monitor the services and retail PMI across the Eurozone. Additionally, the Eurozone’s producer’s price index (PPI) and investor confidence along with Germany’s industrial production and trade balance data, would be keenly watched by market participants.

GBPUSD

The GBP traded 0.39% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.3077, after data revealed that the BoE hiked its interest rate for the first time in a decade, but signaled that the future interest rate hikes will be gradual.

In economic news, Britain’s mortgage approvals fell more than expected in September, while the nation’s consumer credit contracted in the same month. Moreover, Britain’s manufacturing sector surprisingly advanced in October. On the contrary, the nation’s consumer confidence deteriorated in October.

The pair traded at a high of 1.3321 and a low of 1.3040 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2971, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2865. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3252, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3427.                                                             

Going ahead, investors would focus on Britain’s industrial production, manufacturing production, along with the nation’s trade balance data, scheduled this week.

USDJPY

During the previous week, the USD traded 0.35% higher against the JPY and ended at 114.07, after the BoJ left its key interest rates steady as expected.

On the data front, Japan’s manufacturing PMI surprisingly rose in October, whereas the nation’s industrial production dropped less-than-expected on a monthly basis in September. Further, the nation’s unemployment rate remained steady as expected in September. Meanwhile, the nation’s consumer confidence unexpectedly advanced in October.

 During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 114.43 and a low of 112.96. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 113.20 and second support at 112.35, while the first resistance is expected at 114.67 and second resistance at 115.29.                                                      

Going forward, BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes along with Japan’s services PMI, trade balance, machine orders and eco watchers survey, all slated to release this week, would be on investor’s radar.

USDCHF

The USD traded 0.26% higher against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 1.0007. 

Data revealed that, Switzerland’s PMI surprisingly rose in October, whereas the nation’s real retail sales unexpectedly cooled in September. On the contrary, Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator rose more-than-expected in October.

The USD hit a high of 1.0038 and a low of 0.9939 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9951 and first resistance at 1.0050. The second support is expected at 0.9896 and second resistance at 1.0094.                                                             

Ahead in the week, investors would keep a close watch on Switzerland’s CPI and unemployment rate data, slated to release this week.

USDCAD

During the previous week, the USD traded 0.34% lower against the CAD and ended at 1.2764.

In economic news, Canada’s GDP surprisingly narrowed in August. Further, the nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in October. Additionally, the nation’s manufacturing sector slightly eased in October, while international merchandise trade remained unchanged in September.

During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2915 and a low of 1.2715. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.2681, followed by 1.2598, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.2881, followed by 1.2998.                                                          

Moving ahead, speech and press conference by the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz, along with the release of Canada’s PMI data, would gather a lot of market attention.

AUDUSD

During the previous week, the AUD traded 0.35% lower against the USD and ended at 0.7650.   

On the macro front, Australia’s trade surplus widened more-than-anticipated in September. In contrast, the nation’s private sector credit growth surprisingly dropped in September. Moreover, the nation’s retail sales remained unchanged in September.

The pair traded at a high of 0.7730 and a low of 0.7639 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7616, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7582. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7707, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7764.                                                                                     

Looking ahead, market participants await the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) statement on monetary policy along with inflation and consumer confidence data, scheduled this week.

Gold

Last week, gold weakened 0.27% to close at USD1269.91 per ounce, amid strengthening of the US dollar, after the US Fed left the door open for a third interest rate hike in December.

The yellow metal hit a high of USD1285.10 per ounce and a low of USD1265.90 per ounce in the previous week. Gold is expected to its find support at USD1262.37 per ounce, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD1254.53 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD1281.57 per ounce, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD1292.93 per ounce.                                                                                               

Crude Oil

Last week, crude oil traded 3.23% higher and ended at USD55.64 per barrel, after the OPEC and other leading oil producers including Russia agreed to cut their combined oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of March 2018.

Oil prices gained further support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil stocks fell by 2.4 million barrels to 454.9 million barrels in the week ended 27 October 2017, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US oil inventories dropped by 5.1 million barrels to 456.8 million barrels in the week ended 27 October 2017.

The commodity hit a high of USD55.76 per barrel and a low of USD53.75 per barrel in the previous week. The commodity is expected to find its first support at USD54.38 per barrel and first resistance at USD56.39 per barrel. The second support is expected at USD53.06 per barrel and second resistance at USD57.08 per barrel.

Happy trading Traders.

#Real_OTC_Derivates_Statistics_no_Condiments_Needed

OTC derivatives statistics at end-June 2017

• The notional amount of outstanding OTC derivatives contracts rebounded to $542 trillion at end-June 2017.
• The gross market value of outstanding OTC derivatives contracts fell below $13 trillion at end-June 2017, its lowest level since 2007.
• The share of centrally cleared credit default swaps (CDS) jumped to 51% at end-June, as central clearing made further inroads.

Market value of OTC derivatives falls to its lowest level since 2007

Graph 1: Outstanding gross market value, in trillions (ie in million millions, eg 20M equals 20 million millions,
or 20 trillion) of US dollars (interactive graph).
Source: BIS OTC derivatives statistics (Table D5.1).

In the first half of 2017, the notional amount of outstanding OTC derivatives contracts retraced its earlier decline. Notional amounts rose from $482 trillion at end-December 2016 to $542 trillion at end-June 2017, close to their level of a year earlier. In contrast, their gross market value, which provides a more meaningful measure of market and counterparty credit risk, declined further in the first half of 2017, from $15 trillion to less than $13 trillion (Graph 1). The last time the gross market value of all OTC derivatives had been below $13 trillion was end-June 2007.

Gross credit exposures, which adjust gross market values for legally enforceable bilateral netting agreements (but not for collateral), also fell to their lowest level since 2007. They declined from $3.3 trillion at end-December 2016 to $2.8 trillion at end-June 2017.

Short-term interest rate contracts drive the rise in notional amounts

Graph 2: Outstanding notional amount of OTC interest rate derivatives, in trillions (ie in million millions,
eg 400M equals 400 million millions, or 400 trillion) of US dollars (interactive graph).
Source: BIS OTC derivatives statistics (Table D9).

In notional terms, interest rate contracts dominate OTC derivatives markets, and consequently activity in this segment drives overall activity. The notional amount of outstanding OTC interest rate derivatives rose from $368 trillion to $416 trillion in the first half of 2017. Contracts denominated in all major currencies except the yen rose. The appreciation of major currencies against the US dollar over this period boosted the US dollar value of contracts denominated in these currencies, yet even after adjusting for exchange rate movements notional amounts were up.
The rise in notional amounts was concentrated in interest rate contracts with a maturity of one year or less, which climbed from $160 trillion at end-December 2016 to $193 trillion at end-June 2017 (Graph 2). This suggests that the rise was driven by increased positioning and hedging at the short end of the yield curve, possibly in response to changing expectations about the outlook for monetary policy.
Even as notional amounts rose, the gross market value of OTC interest rate derivatives fell further, to $8.5 trillion at end-June 2017. This was its lowest level since 2007. The gross market value of contracts denominated in US dollars fell by 22% in the first half on 2017 to $1.8 trillion. During the same period, there were similar falls for contracts denominated in yen (down by 16% to $0.6 trillion) and in euros (down by 14% to $4 trillion). These declines likely reflected increases in long-term yields, which reduced the gap between market interest rates on the reporting date and rates prevailing at contract inception.

Concentration among FX dealers edges higher

Graph 3: Herfindahl index for FX forwards, FX swaps and currency swaps (interactive graph).
Source: BIS semiannual OTC derivatives statistics (Table D6).

In OTC foreign exchange (FX) derivatives markets, notional amounts rose to a record high of $77 trillion at end-June 2017, up from $69 trillion at end-December 2016. Activity in short-term instruments, in particular FX forwards and swaps, drove the increase. In contrast to other OTC derivatives, most FX derivatives require counterparties to repay the notional amount at maturity and thus can be viewed as a form of collateralised borrowing, with the associated foreign currency repayment and liquidity risks.
Concentration among FX dealers edged higher in the first half of 2017. The concentration of reporting dealers' outstanding positions - as measured by the Herfindahl index, where a higher number indicates that the market is dominated by a few dealers - had fallen steadily in the years after the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis (Graph 3). This trend stopped in 2015. The Herfindahl index for FX forwards, FX swaps and currency swaps subsequently rose from 444 at end-June 2015 to 488 at end-June 2017, indicating that larger dealers gained market share over this period. Concentration increased across all major currencies. While these statistics refer to notional amounts outstanding, data on trading activity from the 2016 Triennial Survey also showed greater concentration in FX markets.

Cleared segment rises to 51% of CDS market

Graph 4: Outstanding notional amount of CDS, in trillions (ie in million millions, eg 10M equals
10 million millions, or 10 trillion) of US dollars (interactive graph).
Source: BIS OTC derivatives statistics (Table D10.1).

Central clearing continued to make inroads in OTC derivatives markets. As regards CDS markets, the cleared segment (red bars in Graph 4) rose from $4.3 trillion to $4.9 trillion in the first half of 2017, even as the total notional amount of outstanding CDS declined slightly. Consequently, the share of outstanding CDS cleared through central counterparties (CCPs) jumped from 44% at end-December 2016 to 51% at end-June 2017. Bilateral contracts between reporting dealers declined further in the first half of 2017, to $2.9 trillion. These shifts are consistent with the novation of contracts between dealers to CCPs.
Turning to OTC interest rate derivatives markets, the share of central clearing was little changed in the first half of 2017. Reporting dealers' positions booked against CCPs rose in parallel with the rise in notional amounts, to $320 trillion at end-June 2017. This left the share of cleared positions at 77%, similar to the share a year earlier.

source 

Good trades Traders.

#Musicfortheears

#Foreign_Exchange_Market_Data_Update

Last week, the forex market was dictated by monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) and robust US GDP data.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies last week, after data revealed that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the third quarter above market expectations, raising prospects for an interest rate hike in December. Gains in the US Dollar were extended further amid speculations that John Taylor would be elected as the next Federal Reserve Chair, who is a more hawkish candidate than Janet Yellen, which could fasten the pace of interest rate hikes in the future.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that the nation’s manufacturing sector advanced beyond expectations, notching a 9-months high in October, boosted by a rise in manufacturing production and new orders growth. Further, the nation’s new home sales surged to a record high in 10 years in September, hinting that the nation’s property market may have regained some momentum. On the other hand, the nation’s goods trade balance deficit widened in September, led by rise in oil imports.

The Euro ended the week on a weaker footing after the Catalan parliament declared independence from Spain, with a view to breaking off as a sovereign republic. Losses in the euro were extended further after the ECB deployed a dovish tone and delayed the tapering to its bond purchases programme. The ECB maintained the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00% as expected. Additionally, the central bank stated that it will reduce its monthly purchase of bonds from January 2018 and will extend those purchases till the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary. On the data front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector surprisingly advanced to a record high in October, boosted by improvement in new orders, while the services sector expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the same month. Separately, Germany’s manufacturing sector growth declined less than expected in October, while the services sector plunged below expectations in the same month.

The CAD ended the weak lower against the USD, after BoC left its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%, amid uncertainty over renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. However, it also signaled that future rate hikes are likely on the horizon. Further, BoC raised its forecast for growth to 3.1% this year, 2.1% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

EURUSD

Last week, the EUR traded 1.49% lower against the USD and ended at 1.1608, after the ECB, at its latest monetary policy meeting, announced plans to scale down but extend its quantitative easing programme. Moreover, the losses were extended further after Catalonia's parliament declared independence from Spain in a disputed vote.

On the macro front, the Eurozone’s preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed in October, whereas the flash services PMI declined more-than-anticipated in the same month. Moreover, the region’s flash consumer confidence index improved in October.

Separately, Germany’s flash Markit manufacturing PMI slightly eased in October, while the services PMI fell more-than-anticipated in the same month. Additionally, the nation’s GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped in November. On the contrary, the nation’s Ifo business climate and business expectations indices, both unexpectedly advanced in October. Meanwhile, the Bundesbank’s monthly report indicated that German economic growth will maintain its strong momentum in the third quarter of 2017, driven by robust industrial orders.

The pair traded at a high of 1.1837 and a low of 1.1575 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1510 and first resistance at 1.1772. The second support is expected at 1.1412 and second resistance at 1.1936.                                                              

This week, investors would focus on the consumer price inflation and unemployment rate data across the Eurozone. Additionally, the Eurozone’s GDP numbers and Germany’s retail sales data would also be keenly watched by traders.

GBPUSD

Last week, the GBP traded 0.47% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3128, after the Bank of England’s (BoE) Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe raised uncertainty over a potential November interest rate hike.On the macro front, Britain’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) climbed more-than-expected by 0.4% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2017. Separately, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, stated that she remains “ambitious and positive” about UK’s future and added that constructive progress had been made in Brexit negotiations. Other data revealed that the nation’s CBI industrial trends total orders surprisingly fell in October.

The GBP hit a high of 1.3279 and a low of 1.3070 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3040 and second support at 1.2951, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3249 and second resistance at 1.3369. Looking ahead, market participants anxiously await the BoE’s interest rate decision, scheduled later this week. Meanwhile, Britain’s Markit manufacturing, services and construction PMIs along with the nation’s net consumer credit and GfK consumer confidence data would also generate a lot of market attention.

USDJPY

During the previous week, the USD traded 0.13% higher against the JPY and ended at 113.67 after data indicated that Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% on an annual basis in September, meeting market expectations.

In economic news, the nation’s final leading economic index and the coincident index, both climbed more than initially estimated in August. On the other hand, the nation’s flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI eased in October.

The pair traded at a high of 114.45 and a low of 113.25 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 113.14 and second support at 112.59, while the first resistance is expected at 114.34 and second resistance at 114.99.                                                                      

Going ahead, investors would focus on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision, scheduled this week. Moreover, Japan’s unemployment rate, industrial production, retail trade and small business confidence index, all will be on investors’ radar.

USDCHF

During the previous week, the USD traded 1.41% higher against the CHF and ended at 0.9981.   

On the macro front, Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index rose in October, while the nation’s UBS consumption indicator registered a rise in September.

The USD hit a high of 1.0038 and a low of 0.9831 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 0.9862 and second support at 0.9743, while the first resistance is expected at 1.0069 and second resistance at 1.0157.                                                      

Going forward, traders would eye Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator, SVME-PMI, retail sales and SECO consumer confidence index, all set to be released this week.

USDCAD

The USD rose against the CAD last week, closing 1.43% higher at 1.2808, after the Bank of Canada (BoC), at its latest monetary policy meeting, expressed caution on the prospects of future rate increases. The BoC, as widely expected, opted to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00%.

Losses in the Canadian Dollar were extended, after data showed that Canada’s retail sales unexpectedly eased on a monthly basis in August. Meanwhile, the nation’s consumer price inflation rose less-than-anticipated by 1.6% on an annual basis in September. 

During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2917 and a low of 1.2614. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2642, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2477. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2945, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3083.                                                                                                                                                                Moving ahead, traders will closely monitor Canada’s GDP data, unemployment rate and Markit manufacturing PMI, all due to release this week.

AUDUSD

The AUD weakened against the USD last week, closing 1.79% lower at 0.7677, following weaker-than-expected inflation data that damped the possibility for a near-term interest rate hike.

Data revealed that Australia’s CPI advanced less-than-expected by 0.6% on a quarterly basis in 3Q 2017. Moreover, the nation’s producer price index advanced on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2017.

During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 0.7835 and a low of 0.7625. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.7590 and first resistance at 0.7800. The second support is expected at 0.7503 and second resistance at 0.7923.                                                              

This week, market participants would look forward to Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing and services indices, retail sales, HIA new home sales and trade balance data.

Gold

During the previous week, gold traded 0.56% lower and ended at USD1273.35 per ounce, amid gains in the US dollar boosted by upbeat US GDP data. Separately, gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust ended the week at 684.63 tons.

Last week, the precious metal traded at a high of USD1285.30 per ounce and a low of USD1263.80 per ounce. Gold is expected to its find support at USD1263.83 per ounce, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD1253.07 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD1285.33 per ounce, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD1296.0perounce                                                                                                                                                                                                     Crude Oil

Crude oil traded 3.97% higher in the previous week, closing at USD53.90 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman stated that the kingdom would support extending the output cut deal in a bid to stabilize oil demand and supply.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Department reported that crude oil inventories increased by 900,000 barrels for the week ended October 20, 2017. Also, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 519,000-barrel climb in the week ended October 20, 2017.

The commodity traded at a high of USD54.20 per barrel and a low of USD51.55 per barrel in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD52.43 per barrel, followed by USD50.66 per barrel, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD55.08 per barrel, followed by USD55.96 per barrel.

Traders never confuse sufficiency with mediocrity, maintain our natural stupidity, breathe deeply and look forward always, is one of the fundamental elements of continuity. Happy trading. ↟

#Foreign_Exchange_Market_Data_Update

The highlight of the week was the approval of budget plan by the US Senate as well as comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney.

The greenback gained ground against a basket of major currencies last week, after the US Senate passed a budget blueprint for the fiscal 2018 that will ease the passage for the US President Donald Trump’s massive tax reforms. Meanwhile, the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, warned that unconventional monetary policy tools remain an option for the central bank if the US economy remains stuck in a low interest-rate regime. Separately, the Fed’s Beige Book report indicated that the pace of US economic growth was “split between modest-to-moderate range”, with some regions suffering major disruptions from hurricanes.

On the macro front, first time claims for the US unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest since March 1973 in the week ended 14 October, highlighting strength in the nation’s labor market. Further, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region hit a 5-month high in October, while the New York Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly accelerated to a 3-year high in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s industrial production as well as manufacturing production, both rebounded in September. Also, the nation’s NAHB housing market index surprisingly advanced to a 5-month high in October, suggesting that home builders are regaining confidence in the economy, while sales of existing homes surprisingly rebounded in September, after declining for three consecutive months. On the contrary, the nation’s housing starts dipped to a 1-year low in September, amid a fallout from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, while building permits plunged in the same month.

The Pound ended the week on a weaker footing against the USD, after the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, warned that “more likely than not”, inflation in Britain would peak above 3.0% in the coming months and reiterated that a rate hike might be appropriate in the coming months. Macroeconomic data showed that British annual inflation surged to a more than 5-year high in September, while retail sales sharply retreated in the same month, suggesting that a surge in inflation will further squeeze household incomes and hold back the growth of retail sector.

The Euro lost ground against the USD last week, amid fears over political instability in Europe, after the Spanish Government threatened to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy and take control as the region’s leader, Carles Puigdemont, refused to abandon a push for independence.

EURUSD

The EUR weakened against the USD last week, closing 0.3% lower at 1.1784, amid political turmoil in Spain as Catalonia threatened to declare independence from the nation. Meanwhile, Spanish government stated that it would suspend Catalonia’s autonomy following the Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, refusal to drop the independence bid. On the data front, the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly eased in October. Further, the region’s seasonally adjusted construction output eased on a monthly basis in August. On the other hand, the region’s final consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.5% on an annual basis in September, confirming the flash print, while seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-expected in August. Also, the region’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened in August. Separately, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment slightly improved in October, whereas the nation’s ZEW current situation index registered an unexpected drop in the same month. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.1858 and a low of 1.1730. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1721 and first resistance at 1.1849. The second support is expected at 1.1661 and second resistance at 1.1917. This week, investors would look forward to the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision along with the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMI data across the Eurozone. Further, the region’s consumer confidence and Germany’s Ifo expectations index as well as retail sales data would also be keenly watched by traders.

GBPUSD

The GBP declined against the USD last week, closing 0.72% lower at 1.3190, following comments from the BoE Governor. Losses in the Pound deepened, after data showed that UK’s retail sales declined more-than-expected on a monthly basis in September. On the contrary, the nation’s CPI rose 3.0% on a yearly basis in September, meeting market expectations, while the ILO unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% in the three months to August. Further, the nation’s Rightmove house price index rebounded in October, while public sector net borrowing posted a less-than-anticipated deficit in September. Meanwhile, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May and the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, agreed that the pace of negotiations over Britain’s exit from the European Union should be accelerated. Additionally, European Council President, Donald Tusk stated that EU leaders have agreed to start “internal preparations” for the second phase of Brexit talks and it is likely to be held in December. The GBP hit a high of 1.3312 and a low of 1.3088 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.3081 and second support at 1.2972, while the first resistance is expected at 1.3305 and second resistance at 1.3420. Looking ahead, market participants would keep a close watch on UK’s flash 3Q GDP numbers and BBA mortgage approvals data, scheduled to release this week.

USDJPY

The USD advanced against the JPY last week, closing 1.52% higher at 113.52. In economic news, Japan’s final industrial production rebounded less than initially estimated on a monthly basis in August, while all industry activity index rose less-than-expected in the same month. Further, growth in the nation’s machine tool orders was revised lower on an annual basis in September. In contrast, the nation’s adjusted merchandise trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in September. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 113.57 and a low of 111.65. The pair is expected to find its first support at 112.26 and first resistance at 114.18. The second support is expected at 110.99 and second resistance at 114.83. Moving ahead, traders would focus on Japan’s national consumer price inflation and flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI, set to release this week.

USDCHF

The USD traded 1.00% higher against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9842. On the macro front, Switzerland’s trade surplus widened more than market expectations in September. The USD hit a high of 0.9853 and a low of 0.9730 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9766 and first resistance at 0.9889. The second support is expected at 0.9686 and second resistance at 0.9932. Going ahead, Switzerland’s ZEW expectations index and the UBS consumption indicator, due to release this week, will be on investors’ radar.

USDCAD

The USD rose against the CAD last week, closing 1.28% higher at 1.2627. The Canadian Dollar lost ground against the USD, after Canadian retail sales surprisingly fell on a monthly basis in August, while the nation’s CPI rose less-than-anticipated by 1.6% on an annual basis in September. Meanwhile, the nation’s manufacturing shipments surprisingly jumped in August. Separately, the Bank of Canada (BoC), in its autumn business outlook survey, revealed continued positive business sentiment across the country, while noting that business activity is becoming more entrenched. Further, the survey highlighted rising expectations for sustained sales growth across regions. However, it also showed several survey indicators moderated from strong summer results. The pair traded at a high of 1.2630 and a low of 1.2451 during the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 1.2509 and second support at 1.2390, while the first resistance is expected at 1.2688 and second resistance at 1.2748. Going forward, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision, due later in the week, would garner significant amount of market attention.

AUDUSD

The AUD traded 0.89% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 0.7817. According to minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October meeting, policymakers stuck to the view that any change in monetary policy would be dependent on domestic economic conditions and not on moves by central banks elsewhere. Moreover, officials remained mindful of the risks associated with high household debt and called for careful monitoring. The central bank also repeated that low interest rates would remain in order to support the Australian economy. Data revealed that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.5% in September, while the number of people employed in the nation topped market expectations in the same month. Moreover, the nation’s Westpac leading index rebounded on a monthly basis in September. The AUD hit a high of 0.7889 and a low of 0.7808 against the USD in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 0.7786, followed by 0.7757, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 0.7867, followed by 0.7919. Going ahead, market participants would keep a close watch on Australia’s consumer price inflation data, the sole important release this week.

Gold

Gold fell last week, closing 1.79% lower at USD1280.47 per ounce, amid a broad strength in the greenback, as the approval of a budget blueprint by the US Senate reignited optimism over the US President, Donald Trump’s tax reform plans. Last week, the precious metal traded at a high of USD1308.40 per ounce and a low of USD1277.60 per ounce. Gold is expected to its find support at USD1270.13 per ounce, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD1258.47 per ounce. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD1300.93 per ounce, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD1320.07 per ounce.

Crude Oil

Last week, crude oil strengthened 0.76% to close at USD51.84 per barrel, supported by concerns over crude supply as political upheaval in the Kurdistan region led to disruption in crude output. Additionally, the OPEC Secretary General, Mohammed Barkindo stated that the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC members to curb crude production helped rebalance the crude oil market at an “accelerated pace”. Oil prices gained further support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) disclosed that US crude oil stockpiles fell more-than-anticipated by 5.7 million barrels to 456.5 million barrels in the week ended 13 October, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that US oil inventories narrowed by 7.1 million barrels to 461.4 million barrels for the same week. The commodity traded at a high of USD52.65 per barrel and a low of USD50.87 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to its find support at USD51.08 per barrel, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of USD50.08 per barrel. The yellow metal is expected to find its first resistance at USD52.86 per barrel, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of USD53.64 per barrel.

Reinvent yourself Trader, never expect different results when you always do the same way, do your best, with the conditions you have...⅀