RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

10/02/2014

Weekly Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update

The US dollar traded broadly lower against its key peers, after manufacturing activity in the US fell to its lowest level in January. Additionally, non-farm payroll report revealed that the economy added fewer-than-expected jobs in January. Furthermore, trade deficit in world’s largest economy widened more-than-expected to $38.7 billion in December, while the US factory orders posted a decline of 1.5%, compared to a gain of 1.8% a month earlier.
However, losses in the greenback were capped as few Fed officials continued their support for further cut in stimulus measures. The Philadelphia Fed Chief, Charles Plosser urged the central bank to fasten the pace of QE3 tapering, while the Atlanta Fed President indicated that further cuts in bond purchases would continue and the QE3 programme might end by 2014.
The Euro rose against the USD after upbeat manufacturing PMI data released in Europe revealed that recovery in the bloc has gained “significant momentum” last month. Moreover, manufacturing activity in Greece returned to growth for the first time in more than four years in January, fuelling hopes that the country's long slump could be easing.
During the week, the European Central Bank decided to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and announced no additional easing measures to shore up slowing inflation. However, the ECB President, Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank is monitoring developments in the region and may take necessary action in its next policy meeting, if low inflation continues to persist.
The GBP retreated against its major peers. In the UK, the Bank of England left its key interest rates steady at 0.50% and made no change to its quantitative easing program. On the economic front, manufacturing PMI fell more-than-expected to 56.7 in January, while service sector growth slowed unexpectedly to a seven-month low in January. Additionally, the nation’s industrial production recovered at a slower-than-expected pace in December.
However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) on Friday stated that the British economy will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015, citing that consumer spending and buoyant housing market will drive domestic demand.
The Aussie gained sharply against the USD, after domestic retail sales, trade balance and business confidence data boosted investors’ risk appetite for the local dollar. To add to the positive tone, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Friday, upgraded its growth and inflation outlook for the Australian economy for 2014.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.86% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3620, following the release of mostly upbeat economic data across the European economies. Manufacturing PMI in the Euro-zone rose to 54.0 in January from 52.7 in December, while the German manufacturing PMI rose to a 32-month high of 56.5. Similar gauge in France rose to a four-month high in January. Additionally, peripheral countries in the Euro-zone also reported an increase in manufacturing activities in January. The common currency also rose after the ECB announced no new monetary easing measures at its policy meeting. Additionally, the central bank chief, Mario Draghi stated that the Euro zone will not slide into deflation. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3644 and a low of 1.3477. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3517, with the next support expected at 1.3413. The first resistance is at 1.3684, and the next at 1.3747.

Moving ahead, apart from the ECB’s monthly report and Mario Draghi’s speech, investors’ would keep a tab on the fourth quarter GDP data from the Euro-zone and Germany.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.19% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6408, as dismal domestic data dampened investors’ sentiment towards the Pound. Manufacturing activity in the UK fell unexpectedly in January, while expansion in the services sector eased last month, pointing towards a weak start to 2014. Data released on Friday, showed that industrial and manufacturing output in the UK rose less than market expectations. The pair traded at a high of 1.6440 and a low of 1.6252 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6293, with the next at 1.6179. Resistance exists first at 1.6481, and then at 1.6555.

Investors look forward to the central bank’s Quarterly Inflation Report this week.

USD JPY
The USD traded flat against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.35. The Yen came under pressure on Thursday, after the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Hiroshi Nakaso indicated that the central bank will take all the necessary steps to adjust  policies if risks emanating from emerging markets come in the way of achieving its 2% inflation target. Another Deputy Governor, Kikuo Iwata echoed a similar view and said that the central bank would continue its stimulus measures until the 2% inflation target is achieved in a stable manner. In economic news, the leading economic index in Japan advanced to 112.1 in December, marking the fourth successive rise, while the coincident index rose to a reading of 111.7 from 110.7 in November.  The pair traded at a high of 102.59 and a low of 100.75. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.20, with the next support expected at 100.06. 
The first resistance is at 103.04, and the next at 103.74.

Apart from domestic economic data, traders would focus on the global news ahead in the week.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.77% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8981 in the last week. In economic news, consumer sentiment in Switzerland improved sharply in Q4 2013. A separate report indicated that Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed more-than-expected in December, while the Swiss retail sales increased at a weaker pace in December. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9083 and a low of 0.8959. The first support is at 0.8948, and the next at 0.8892. Resistance exists first at 0.9072, and then at 0.9140.

Apart from external cues, traders would focus on the Swiss unemployment rate and inflation data for January to offer further guidance in the pair.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.74% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.1038. The Canadian Dollar rose after the Ivey PMI advanced to a reading of 56.8 in January. The gains were further strengthened after data on Friday revealed that the Canadian economy added 29,400 more jobs in January, while the jobless rate fell to 7.0% from 7.2% recorded in the previous month. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1135 and a low of 1.0966 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0958, with the next at 1.0877. The first resistance is at 1.1127, while the next is at 1.1215.

With no major domestic data scheduled for release during the week, the CAD is expected to closely track global economic news for clarity on risk appetite among market participants.

AUD USD
AUD traded 2.39% higher against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8961, after the RBA left its interest rate unchanged at 2.5% and indicated that the current monetary policy is appropriate to support sustainable growth. On Friday, the central bank raised the nation’s growth and inflation forecasts for 2014. On the data front, trade surplus in Australia widened sharply in December, while retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.5% (MoM) for the same period. Moreover, the NAB business confidence rose in Q4 2013, hitting a two-and-a-half year high. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9000 and a low of 0.8729. The first support is at 0.8793, and the next at 0.8626. The first resistance is at 0.9064, and the next at 0.9168.

The Australian employment and consumer confidence report later this week remain the main domestic triggers to determine the near term trend for the Aussie.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.64% higher against the USD and closed at USD1265.01, as the greenback weakened on disappointing economic data released in the US. The USD further came under pressure after data on Friday showed that job creation in the US slowed further in January. Gold prices also rose amid hopes that demand from China would rebound as the markets in the nation re-opened after a week long holiday for the Lunar New Year, boosting volumes for the precious metal. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1274.73 and a low of 1240.97 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1245.74 and the next at 1226.48. The first resistance is at 1279.50, while the next is at 1294.00.

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve new chief, Janet Yellen will testify before Congress on the bank’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched, in the light of Friday’s tepid jobs report.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 2.70% higher against the USD in the last week, to close at USD100.10. Oil traders were disappointed from the economic data released last week in China and the US, world’s largest oil consumers. Despite this, oil prices rose as persistently cold weather across the US boosted heating fuel demand. Additionally, upbeat manufacturing PMI data from Europe supported gains in oil prices. On the US oil inventory front, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a less-than-expected 384,000 barrels rise in the US crude stockpiles for the week ended January 31, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that crude oil inventories rose by 440,000 barrels. Oil traded at a high of 100.24 and a low of 96.26 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 97.49, while the next support exists at 94.89. The first resistance is at 101.47, and the next at 102.85.

Ahead in the week, the EIA, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are all scheduled to release monthly reports on the oil market.

Happy pips.
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