Forex Market Update
This morning, the USD is trading mixed against most of the major currencies. Earlier today, the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser, indicated that the current pace of tapering of the central bank’s QE measure seemed appropriate. However, he pointed out that the recent encouraging US economic data should not be the only factor for the Fed to decide on changing the size of its taper.
The JPY is trading higher against the USD as concerns over the growth-outlook of the Chinese economy and uncertainty over Ukraine bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the currency. The JPY trimmed its gains after Japan’s lackluster GDP and trade balance data increased worries about the nation’s health of the economy, before a sales-tax hike in April.
The AUD fell against the USD for the second-day, after China, its largest trading partner, posted the biggest trade deficit in two years in February. Additionally, the PBOC reduced the reference rate of the Chinese Yuan by 0.18%, the largest degree since 2012.
On Friday’s New York session, the USD traded higher against the key currencies, after a strong US non-farm payrolls data confirmed strong recovery in the US economy and strengthened the prospect for a continued tapering of the Fed’s stimulus measure. Separately, the New York Fed President, William Dudley, outlined some bright spots in the long-term growth outlook of the US economy and opined that speculations for an interest rate hike in the mid 2015 seemed reasonable.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3883 against the USD, 0.07% higher from the New York close. In economic news, Euro-zone’s Sentix investor confidence rose to 13.9 in March from a reading of 13.3 in the previous month. However, analysts had expected the index to improve to 14.0 this month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3899 and a low of 1.3876. On Friday, the EUR traded 0.19% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3873, as a strong US non-farm payrolls data benefitted the greenback.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3851 and first resistance at 1.3916.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6669 against the USD, 0.37% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6743 and a low of 1.6674. On Friday, the British Pound traded 0.26% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6731. The USD advanced after an upbeat US non-farm payrolls data strengthened the prospects for a continuation in the Fed’s taper plans.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6627 and first resistance at 1.6749.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 103.30 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, a tad lower from the New York close. The JPY is trading higher against the USD as concerns on China’s growth-outlook and lingering tensions in Ukraine, spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Data released overnight showed that the Japanese economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.37 and a low of 103.00. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.38% higher against the JPY, and closed at 103.32.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.84 and first resistance at 103.77.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8777 against the Swiss Franc, flat from the New York close. Early morning, a report showed that the Swiss real retail sales rose 0.3% (YoY) in January, way below market estimates for a 3.3% rise and compared to an increase of 2.5% registered in the preceding month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8782 and a low of 0.8767. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.09% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8777.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8750 and first resistance at 0.8811.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1116 against the CAD, 0.17% higher from the New York close. Traders would keep a tab on Canada’s housing starts data for further cues in the loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1132 and a low of 1.1090. On Friday, the USD traded 1.00% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1097. The Canadian Dollar lost ground after data revealed that the number of employed people in the Canadian economy unexpectedly fell in February.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1018 and first resistance at 1.1173.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9044 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.21% lower from the New York close, after its largest trading partner, China reported lackluster trade balance and inflation data. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9065 and a low of 0.9027. AUD traded 0.71% lower against the USD in the Friday’s New York session, and closed at 0.9063.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8998 and first resistance at 0.9113.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1335.84 per ounce, 0.35% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, China Gold Association forecasted a 17% decline in the demand for gold in China, world’s largest consumer of gold. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1341.73 and a low of $1327.94 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 0.63% lower, and closed at $1340.58, after the USD advanced following upbeat US non-farm payrolls data and after a leading broker projected the recent rally in the gold prices to fizzle soon.
Gold has its first support at $1324.01 and first resistance at $1350.33.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.92 per ounce, 0.10% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.93 and a low of $20.61. Silver traded 2.29% lower against the USD in the Friday’s New York session, and closed at $20.89, amid broad gains in the US Dollar.
Silver has its first support at $20.53 and first resistance at $21.38.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.36 per barrel, 1.10% lower from the New York close, as dismal Chinese trade balance data spurred fresh concerns on the demand prospect of the commodity. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.59 and a low of $101.05. On Friday, Oil traded 0.65% higher in the New York session, and closed at $102.49, as escalating protest in Libya over oil exports and lingering Ukraine-concerns weighed on the supply-outlook of the commodity. However, a stronger US Dollar capped the gains in the dollar-denominated commodity.
It has its first support at $100.64 and first resistance at $102.50.
Economic Snapshot
UK Lloyds unemployment confidence index remained steady in February
The Lloyds employment confidence index in the UK remained steady at -2.0 in February, compared to the previous month.
Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence rose less than market estimate in March
The Sentix investor confidence indicator in the Euro-zone rose to a level of 13.9 in March, compared to a reading of 13.3 reported in the previous month. Analysts’ had expected the Sentix investor confidence to rise to 14.0.
France manufacturing production rose higher than market estimate in January
On a monthly basis, manufacturing production in France rose 0.7% in January, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting manufacturing production to rise 0.3% in January. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, industrial production in France dropped 0.2% in January, following a revised 0.6% fall recorded in the preceding month.
Italy industrial production rose in January
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production in Italy climbed 1.0% in January, compared to a revised 0.8% decrease recorded in the previous month.
Spain industrial output rose less than market estimate in January
On an annual basis, calendar adjusted industrial output in Spain rose 1.1% in January, following a revised increase of 2.2% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting Spain’s calendar adjusted industrial output to rise 1.8% in January.
Switzerland retail sales advanced at a slower pace in January
On an annual basis, real retail sales in Switzerland rose 0.3% in January, compared to a revised 2.5% increase in the previous month. Markets were expecting real retail sales to climb 3.3% in January.
Japan Eco Watchers survey outlook fell unexpectedly in February
Eco Watchers survey for the future outlook dropped to a reading of 40.0 in February, from a level of 49.0 recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the Eco Watchers survey outlook to rise to 50.5 in February. Meanwhile, Eco Watchers Survey for the current situation in Japan dropped to a level of 53.0 in February, compared to a reading of 54.7 reported in the previous month.
Happy pips.
