Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies. The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard offered an optimistic outlook on the US economy by projecting jobless rate in the nation to fall below 6% by the end of this year.
The AUD is trading higher against the USD after the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens forecasted a stronger economic growth in Australia this year and further pick up during 2015. Separately, the RBA, in its Financial Stability Review report, stated that the nation’s financial system is sound and major banks are well placed to meet international liquidity standards.
In the UK, the BoE’s Martin Weale asserted that the economy has gained momentum and wage growth is showing signs of increased growth in the nation.
In a noteworthy event, the World Bank warned that Russia could witness a 1.8% drop in its 2014 GDP if conflict with Ukraine escalates.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the USD traded lower against the key currencies. However, the losses were limited after a report showed that consumer confidence in the US rose at the fastest pace in six-years in March.
The EUR gave up some of its initial gains after the ECB President, Mario Draghi hinted that the central bank would do whatever it takes to maintain price stability in the region. Meanwhile, the ECB member Jens Weidmann indicated that the central bank could go for QE to ward off deflation if necessary.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3794 against the USD, 0.22% lower from the New York close. In economic news, the Gfk consumer confidence index in Germany stood pat at previous month’s level of 8.5 in April while on seasonally adjusted monthly basis retail sales in Italy registered a flat reading in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3829 and a low of 1.3796. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.24% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3825. However, the EUR pared some of its initial gains after the ECB President, Mario Draghi’s dovish speech.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3746 and first resistance at 1.3844.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6528 against the USD, tad lower from the New York close. Earlier today, BoE’s Martin Weale, highlighted growth in the nation’s wage growth and opined that interest rate in the UK would not remain at a record-low 0.5% for an indefinite period of time. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6558 and a low of 1.6517. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.08% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6530.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6488 and first resistance at 1.6563.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.30 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, tad higher from the New York close. Early morning, Etsuro Honda, an advisor to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe forecasted the possibility for the BoJ to decide on further stimulus measure by the mid of May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.42 and a low of 102.29. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.12% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.29.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.13 and first resistance at 102.48.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8865 against the Swiss Franc, 0.42% higher from the New York close. On the economic front, the UBS Swiss consumption indicator rose to a reading of 1.57 in February, from previous month’s level of 1.49. Looking forward, Traders await the SNB’s quarterly bulletin report for the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8866 and a low of 0.8829. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.18% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8828.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8825 and first resistance at 0.8893.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1129 against the CAD, 0.36% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1170 and a low of 1.1131. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.20% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1169.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1097 and first resistance at 1.1187.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9226 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.72% higher from the New York close, after RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, citing encouraging sings in domestic consumptions, projected the economy to strengthen this year. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9237 and a low of 0.9159. AUD traded 0.15% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9160.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9164 and first resistance at 0.9262.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1314.30 per ounce, 0.24% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1316.48 and a low of $1309.57 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.16% higher, and closed at $1311.18, amid a weakness in the US Dollar. Gold prices also found support from a report that showed Iraq purchased 36 metric tons of gold this month, its largest purchase in three years. However, a strong consumer confidence data from the US capped the gains in the commodity.
Gold has its first support at $1307.39 and first resistance at $1318.85.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.06 per ounce, 0.36% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.15 and a low of $19.95. Silver traded 0.37% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.99, as risk-appetite among traders increased after a report showed that consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy rose to a six-year high reading in March.
Silver has its first support at $19.93 and first resistance at $20.19.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $99.32 per barrel, 0.20% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $99.54 and a low of $99.14. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.87% lower in the New York session, and closed at $99.15, after the API reported that US crude supplies rose by 6.3 million barrels last week. However, the losses were kept in check after news emerged of supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria.
It has its first support at $98.66 and first resistance at $100.11.
Economic Snapshot
German Gfk consumer confidence remained steady in April
Gfk Group reported that the consumer confidence index in Germany remained steady at a level of 8.5 in April, in line with the market expectations.
Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator edged up in February
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) reported that the Swiss consumption indicator rose to 1.57 in February, from a revised level of 1.49 in the previous month.
Italy retail sales unexpectedly remained flat in January
National Institute of Statistics reported that on a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted retail sales in Italy remained flat in January, following a fall of 0.3% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 0.4% in January.
US unemployment rate anticipated to fall below 6.0%, indicated Fed’s Bullard
James Bullard, the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis, in his speech in Hong Kong, stated that the US jobless rate is likely to fall below 6.0% by the end of 2014. He also indicated that despite recent weak economic data, the nation’s economy is set for a “pretty good year”.
Australian economy to strengthen this year, indicated RBA’s Stevens
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor, Glenn Stevens, opined that there are encouraging signs of a shift from mining towards non-resources industries in Australia and that the nation’s economy might strengthen later this year. Stevens also maintained that he expects interest rates to remain stable in the near future and that subdued wage growth is likely to limit the risk of persistent and serious rise in inflation in the nation.
Australian financial conditions have improved, indicated RBA’s Financial Stability Review
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its Financial Stability Review report, highlighted that Australia’s financial conditions have improved and that the prevailing housing market conditions do not risk the nation’s financial stability. However, the RBA warned that banks should not relax their lending standards and that the central bank will closely monitor housing sector activity.
Happy pips.
