Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies.
The EUR is mostly steady against the USD as traders did not react to the German consumer inflation data, which came in-line with market expectations for March. Yesterday, the ECB President, Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB is ready to start QE to prevent prices from staying too low for too long time in the region. Separately, ECB’s Peter Praet and Vitor Constancio also highlighted the ECB’s readiness to act to boost the region’s inflation rate.
In Japan, the minutes from the BoJ’s March 10-11 meeting indicated that the economy along with the consumer prices are moving in line with the central bank’s forecast. Additionally, the minutes also projected the economy to continue its moderate pace of expansion in future despite the recent sales-tax hike.
In a noteworthy event, Fitch upgraded Portugal’s rating to 'Positive' from 'Negative and raised its growth projections.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the USD traded mostly lower against the key currencies. However, the greenback pared some of its initial losses after initial jobless claims in the US fell to the lowest level in seven years last week and after the US posted the smallest budget deficit since 2000 in March.
The BoE, at its April policy meeting, kept its policy stance intact by maintaining its interest rate at 0.5% and keeping its QE package unchanged at £375.0 billion.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3887 against the USD, tad higher from the New York close. In economic news, Germany’s consumer price index rose in-line with market expectations for March while France's current account deficit narrowed in February, supported by a decline in the nation’s trade deficit. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3906 and a low of 1.3886. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.13% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3886. However, dovish comments from some top ECB officials kept the currency’s gains in check.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3858 and first resistance at 1.3911.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6767 against the USD, 0.09% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, the CB leading economic index in the UK rose 0.4% in February, slower than a 0.7% rise in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6788 and a low of 1.6767. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6782. The BoE kept its interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.5% and maintained the size of its asset purchase program at £375.0 billion.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6749 and first resistance at 1.6790.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.58 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.09% higher from the New York close. Overnight, the minutes from the BoJ’s March meeting projected moderate recovery to continue in Japan, adding that currently the economy and consumer prices are moving in line with the central bank’s forecast. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.88 and a low of 101.39. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.35% lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.48. The JPY advanced as soft economic releases from China spurred fresh demand for safe-haven assets.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.27 and first resistance at 101.94.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8761 against the Swiss Franc, marginally lower from the New York close. Early morning, a survey from Bloomberg revealed that majority of the economists believed the Swiss National Bank to defend its cap on the Swiss Franc for at least another year. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8767 and a low of 0.8756. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.24% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8763.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8743 and first resistance at 0.8787.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0928 against the CAD, 0.07% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0942 and a low of 1.0931. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.17% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0936. The Canadian Dollar declined even as the Statistics Canada reported that price of new Canadian homes rose 0.2% (MoM) in February, topping expectations of a 0.1% gain and compared to January's 0.3% increase.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0888 and first resistance at 1.0955.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9415 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, tad higher from the New York close. On the economic front, data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, showed that annual consumer inflation rate rose less than expected last month while producer prices for March fell for the 25th straight month in annual terms. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9419 and a low of 0.9372. AUD traded slightly higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9411, as traders cheered upbeat Australian employment data for March.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9366 and first resistance at 0.9460.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1318.60 per ounce, marginally lower from the New York close. A report from India, world’s second largest importer of gold, showed that gold and silver imports dropped 40% to $33.46 billion in FY 2014. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1322.00 and a low of $1314.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded tad higher, and closed at $1319.00, as a decline in the US equities lured investors to the safe-haven commodity. However, SPDR Gold Trust reported that its holdings fell 0.26 tons to 806.22 tons on Thursday.
Gold has its first support at $1313.43 and first resistance at $1324.33.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.05 per ounce, 0.07% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.08 and a low of $19.91. Silver traded 0.55% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $20.04. However, a weaker US Dollar and broad gains in the prices of industrial metals kept the commodity’s losses in check.
Silver has its first support at $19.84 and first resistance at $20.33.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $103.16 per barrel, 0.20% lower from the New York close, hurt by the latest batch of lackluster economic data from China and easing concerns on supply from Libya. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.40 and a low of $103.01. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.07% higher in the New York session, and closed at $103.40, benefitted by a monthly report from OPEC that indicated more than half a million per day fall in its oil production last month.
It has its first support at $102.89 and first resistance at $103.54.
Economic Snapshot
UK construction output rose at a slower pace in February
The Office for National Statistics reported that on an annual basis, construction output in the UK rose 2.8% in February, compared to a revised 5.7% rise in the previous month.
UK CB leading economic index rose at a slower pace in February
The CB leading economic index in the UK advanced 0.4% in February, following a revised 0.6% increase recorded in the previous month.
German final consumer price index rose in line with the preliminary estimate in March
The Federal Statistical Office Germany reported that on an annual basis, the final consumer price index in Germany increased 1.0% in March, in line with the preliminary estimate and compared to a 1.2% rise reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the final harmonized consumer price (HICP) index in Germany rose 0.9% in March, in line with the preliminary estimate, following a 1.0% rise in the previous month.
German wholesale price index declined in March
The Federal Statistical Office of Germany has reported that on an annual basis, the wholesale price index in Germany fell 1.7% in March, compared to a 1.8% decline reported in the previous month.
France current account deficit narrowed in February
Current account deficit of France narrowed to €1.4 billion in February, following a revised deficit of €3.7 billion in the previous month.
Spain CPI fell less than expected in March
On an annual basis, Spain’s final consumer price index fell 0.1% in March, following a flat change recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, Spain’s final harmonized consumer price (HICP) index dropped 0.2% in March, compared to 0.1% rise recorded in the previous month.
China consumer price index rose as expected in March
On an annual basis, China’s consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.4% in March, in line with market expectations, compared to a 2.0% rise recorded in the previous month.
China producer prices declined more than expected in March
On an annual basis, China’s producer price index fell 2.3% in March, compared to a 2.0% fall recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the producer price index to fall 2.2% in March.
Happy pips.
