Forex Market Update
This morning, the USD is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US consumer confidence and Markit service PMI data for April.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD, extending its yesterday’s gains on the back of upbeat German IFO data. On Thursday, the ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio indicated that the central bank is considering all possible options, including asset purchases to battle the prolonged period of low-inflation in the economy.
The GBP is on an upward trend, after retail sales data from the UK came in better than forecast in March.
The JPY is trading higher on strong demand for safe-haven assets. Earlier in Japan, Finance Minister, Taro Aso, following a rise in the nation’s annual consumer inflation rate, stated that things are proceeding well with regards to the nation's efforts to shake off deflation.
In Switzerland, the SNB President, Thomas Jordan stated that the CHF on current level still remains high and that the central bank’s cap on the currency remains vital as a further appreciation in the Franc could add up to a threat of deflation.
In a noteworthy event, Fitch Ratings revised its rating outlook on Italy’s “BBB+” sovereign rating to “Stable” from “Negative.”
Yesterday, the USD traded lower in the New York session against the key currencies. However, earlier the USD found support from a strong US durable goods orders data for March.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3843 against the USD, 0.08% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3848 and a low of 1.3829. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.28% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3832. ECB policymaker, Luc Coene highlighted the adverse effect of a stronger EUR on the Euro-zone’s price stability and further added that low April inflation numbers may force the ECB to act immediately, while another policymaker, Vitor Constancio hinted that the ECB is looking at all instrument to battle low-inflation.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3807 and first resistance at 1.3864.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6820 against the USD, 0.11% higher from the New York close, benefited from a report that showed retail sales in the UK economy rose unexpectedly 0.1% (MoM) last month. However, the BBA mortgage approvals surprisingly fell to a seasonally adjusted 45,900 in March, compared to previous month’s level of 47,600. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6832 and a low of 1.6795. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.17% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6802.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6779 and first resistance at 1.6846.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.19 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.09% lower from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that, Japan’s annual consumer inflation rate rose to 1.6% in March while the all industry activity index in Japan fell more-than-expected 1.1% (MoM) in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.50 and a low of 102.18. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.27% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.29.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.96 and first resistance at 102.54.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8806 against the Swiss Franc, 0.12% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, the SNB Chief, Thomas Jordan indicated that the central bank would defend its ceiling on the Swiss Franc as a further appreciation in the currency could result as a deflation threat in the economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8821 and a low of 0.8806. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.40% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8817.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8786 and first resistance at 0.8841.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1027 against the CAD, tad higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1038 and a low of 1.1023. Yesterday, the USD traded tad lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1025. Late Thursday, the BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz indicated that interest rate in Canada could remain relatively lower even after the economy recovers completely.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1013 and first resistance at 1.1040.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9277 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.14% higher from the New York close, in a subdued-holiday trading session on account of the ANZAC day public holiday in Australia. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9283 and a low of 0.9260. AUD traded 0.06% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9264.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9257 and first resistance at 0.9290.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1294.70 per ounce, 0.06% higher from the New York close, benefitted from a report that showed volumes for the benchmark spot gold contract in China climbed to a two-month high yesterday. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1295.60 and a low of $1290.40 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 1.59% higher, and closed at $1293.90, as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal.
Gold has its first support at $1275.73 and first resistance at $1306.33.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.60 per ounce, 0.51% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.74 and a low of $19.55. Silver traded 2.58% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.70, amid strong demand for industrial metals and safe-haven assets.
Silver has its first support at $19.06 and first resistance at $20.04.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.25 per barrel, 0.60% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.05 and a low of $101.20. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.23% higher in the New York session, and closed at $101.87, as growing concerns on Ukraine crisis and unwillingness of rebels to vacate several ports in Libya weighed on the supply outlook of the commodity.
It has its first support at $100.85 and first resistance at $102.00.
Economic Snapshot
UK retail sales rose more than expected in March
The Office for National Statistics reported that on an annual basis, retail sales in UK rose 4.2% in March, following a revised increase of 3.3% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 3.8% in March.
UK BBA mortgage approvals fell unexpectedly in March
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) reported that the mortgage approvals in UK dropped to a level of 45.9K in March, compared to revised 47.2K approvals reported in the previous month. Market had expected BBA mortgage approvals to rise to 48.0K in March.
Spain producer price index declined at a slower pace in March
On an annual basis, the producer price index in Spain fell 1.2% in March, compared to a 2.9% fall reported in the previous month.
Japan’s all industry activity index declined more than anticipated in February
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that on a monthly basis, the all industry activity index in Japan fell 1.1% in February, more than market expectation of a 0.7% decrease and following an revised increase of 1.7% recorded in the preceding month.
Good trades.
