Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US consumer inflation data and a planned speech from the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen.
The EUR lost ground after Euro-zone’s Q1 GDP growth disappointed while consumer prices in the nation managed to come in-line with market estimates for April. Adding to the negative sentiment were comments from ECB’s Vitor Constancio who hinted that the ECB would act swiftly if inflation outlook deteriorates. However, German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble dismissed concerns by stating that he did not see deflation in the region currently.
In a noteworthy event, the IMF’s Olivier Blanchard revealed that the fund sees 25% probability for the Euro-zone economy to slip in deflation by the end of 2015.
In Japan, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda highlighted his confidence in the nation achieving its 2.0% inflation target in fiscal 2015, after reports showed that economic growth in Japan rose at the fastest pace in more than 2 years in Q1 2013. However, Fitch Ratings kept its “Negative” outlook on Japan even as it affirmed its “A+” rating on the nation.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mixed against the key currencies. In economic releases, US producer prices registered its biggest rise since September 2012 in April.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3662 against the USD, 0.39% lower from the New York close, after Euro-zone’s GDP data came in below forecast for the first quarter and after consumer prices in the region fell on a monthly basis in April. However, economic growth in Germany surpassed analysts’ estimates while economic growth in France and Italy contracted in the Q1. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3724 and a low of 1.3668. Yesterday, the EUR traded a tad higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3715.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3639 and first resistance at 1.3706.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6758 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. Earlier today, BoE’s Ben Broadbent hinted that interest rates in the UK economy would not rise until the economy is ready to withstand the effects of policy tightening. Separately, the UK CB leading economic indicator rose at a slower pace in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6779 and a low of 1.6744. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6766, hurt by the BoE Governor, Mark Carney’s dovish comments.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6722 and first resistance at 1.6804.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.90 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.05% higher from the New York close. However, initially the JPY received support after data showed that the Japanese economy expanded at the fastest rate in nearly three years in the first quarter even as the nation’s tertiary industry index and consumer confidence index fell short of analysts’ estimates. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.13 and a low of 101.76. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded a tad lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.85.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.66 and first resistance at 102.13.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8946 against the Swiss Franc, 0.53% higher from the New York close, as the latter came under pressure after Swiss producer and import prices defied market expectations and fell 0.3% month-on-month in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8949 and a low of 0.8894. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded slightly higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8899.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8906 and first resistance at 0.8968.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0869 against the CAD, 0.18% lower from the New York close. Traders await Canada’s manufacturing shipments data for further cues in the Loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0892 and a low of 1.0862. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.20% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0889.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0842 and first resistance at 1.0904.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9376 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, a tad lower from the New York close. In economic news, Moody’s rating agency expressed an optimistic view on the Australia’s mining sector and affirmed its “AAA” credit rating on the nation. In data, RBA foreign exchange transaction totaled A$325.0 million in April, nearly half of A$736 million worth of transactions in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9395 and a low of 0.9365. AUD traded 0.22% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9378.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9352 and first resistance at 0.9404.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1303.60 per ounce, 0.13% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1307.30 and a low of $1301.40 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.18% lower, and closed at $1305.30, but held ground above the key
$1,300-an-ounce level, supported by lingering tensions over in Ukraine crisis.
$1,300-an-ounce level, supported by lingering tensions over in Ukraine crisis.
Gold has its first support at $1299.53 and first resistance at $1308.43.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.71 per ounce, 0.33% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.84 and a low of $19.61. Silver traded 0.70% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.78. However, losses in the white metal were limited after a report showed that demand for physical silver climbed 13.0% to reach a to a record high of 1,081.1 million ounces in 2013.
Silver has its first support at $19.55 and first resistance at $19.94.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.96 per barrel, marginally higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.13 and a low of $101.74. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.16% lower in the New York session, and closed at $101.93, as concerns on supply-outlook of the commodity eased after the EIA reported a 900,000 barrels rise in the US crude supplies last week. Oil prices also came under pressure after Libya reported that operation at its El Feel oilfield resumed yesterday.
It has its first support at $101.58 and first resistance at $102.49.
Economic Snapshot
UK CB leading economic index rose at a slower pace in March
The CB leading economic index in the UK rose 0.3% in March, following an increase of 0.4% recorded in the preceding month.
Euro-zone GDP rose less than market estimates in Q1 2014
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the preliminary GDP in the Euro-zone rose 0.2% in Q1 2014, less than market expectations of a rise of 0.4% and compared to rise of 0.2% in the previous quarter.
Euro-zone final consumer price index rose in line with the preliminary estimate in April
On an annual basis, the Euro-zone’s final consumer price index increased 0.7% in April, in line with preliminary estimate and compared to a rise of 0.5% recorded in the previous month.
ECB to maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation if needed, indicated ECB’s monthly report
The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monthly report for May 2014, indicated that the Euro-zone economy is recovering as expected and the central bank’s inflation expectations for the Euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored below, but close to 2.0%.
German economy expanded more than market expectations in the first quarter of 2014
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Germany’s GDP increased 0.8% in the Q1 2014, more than market estimates of 0.7% rise and compared to a 0.4% rise reported in the preceding quarter.
France GDP remained flat in Q1 2014
On a quarterly basis, French GDP remained flat in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a revised rise of 0.2% reported in the previous quarter.
Italy’s economy contracts unexpectedly in the Q1 2014
On a seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP in Italy fell 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a 0.1% rise reported in the previous quarter. Markets had expected the GDP to rise 0.2% in the Q1 2014.
Swiss producer and import prices dropped in April
On a monthly basis, the producer and import price index in Switzerland fell 0.3% in April, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month.
Japan consumer confidence index declined in April
The consumer confidence index in Japan fell unexpectedly to a level of 37.0 in April, compared to reading of 37.5 reported in the previous month.
Australian RBA foreign exchange transaction declined in April
The RBA foreign exchange transaction in Australia declined to A$ 325.0 million in April from A$ 736.0 million in the previous month.
Good trades.