RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

27/05/2014

Weekly Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update

The US Dollar registered gains against most key currencies last week, as market participants drew strong encouragement from another set of positive US economic data. New home sales rose 6.4% to 433,000 units in April, after slumping in the previous two months. The latest PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in the US expanded at the fastest pace in three months, while the index of leading economic indicators posted a solid gain, rising for the third consecutive month in April.
Meanwhile, traders digested the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes that offered little new insight on the direction of US monetary policy. The policy makers discussed plans to exit stimulus but gave no indication about when the Fed may hike its benchmark interest rate from near zero.
Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US escalated, after the former threatened to drop the dollar as a reserve currency if the US imposes sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. In a key development, preliminary results for the Presidential elections held in Ukraine on Sunday, suggested that Petro Poroshenko, who has close ties with Europe but also wants relations with Russia, may win.
The Euro came under pressure, after comments by few European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gave indications that the central bank would add more stimulus to combat deflationary pressures. In a noteworthy development, rating agencies upgraded sovereign debt rating on Spain and Greece, reflecting an improvement in the overall fiscal situation.
The Pound rose against the greenback last week, following the release of better-than-expected economic data in the UK. Meanwhile, the minutes of the last policy meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) indicated that the policymakers unanimously decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their views on the suitable path of policy varied, with some members supporting an early rate hike.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy steady at the conclusion of its board meeting and gave a slightly more optimistic view of the Japanese economy.
The Aussie fell, after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting indicated that the central bank policy makers expect the benchmark interest rates to remain at the current low levels of 2.5% for a prolonged period of time.
Meanwhile in Canada, disappointing retail and wholesale sales data weighed on the domestic currency, adding to evidence that economic growth in the country slowed in the first quarter of 2014. However, the Lonnie moved away from recent lows against the greenback on Friday to finish flat for the week, after the Statistics Canada reported that the consumer price index for April rose at an annualized rate of 2.0%, easing the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) concerns on low inflation.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.47% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3629, following the release of downbeat economic data from the region and as dovish comments from few eminent ECB policymakers weighed on the common currency. The Euro also came under pressure, amid uncertainty over the outcome of the European Parliamentary elections. Economic data showed a larger-than-expected drop in the Ifo German business climate index in May. Also, the latest Markit PMI data revealed that manufacturing activity in France, Germany and the Euro-zone faced headwinds in May. Another set of data indicated that the Euro-zone economy grew less-than-expected in the first quarter. The ECB member, Yves Mersch indicated that inflation rate in the Euro-zone would remain low and hinted that the central bank may take action at its next policy meeting. Additionally, another member, Erkki Liikanen stated that the central bank is willing to deploy “non-traditional measures”, including an asset-purchase programme, if deflation risks increase significantly in the region. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3735 and a low of 1.3615. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3584, with the next support expected at 1.3540. The first resistance is at 1.3704, and the next at 1.3780.

Apart from economic data from the Euro-zone, market participants will closely monitor unemployment and retail sales data from Germany this week for insights into the overall health of the region’s largest economy.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.12% higher against the USD and closed at 1.6832, following the release of inspiring domestic economic data and as the upbeat assessment of the UK economy by the OECD kept the GBP supported. The UK GDP data revealed that the economy grew in the first quarter, in line with initial estimates, driven by consumer spending and business investment. Retail sales advanced in April, recording a strong start to the second quarter. The nation’s inflation rose for the first time in 10 months to an annual rate of 1.8% in April. Moreover, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed that Britain’s manufacturers remain positive about growth in the sector and forecasted output to increase in the coming months. The minutes of the Bank of England’s latest policy meeting released during the week, revealed that the policymakers were divided with regards to the timing of a revision to the benchmark interest rate. The pair traded at a high of 1.6923 and a low of 1.6802 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6782, with the next at 1.6731. Resistance exists first at 1.6903, and then at 1.6973.

Ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the domestic consumer sentiment and crucial housing market reports for further direction.

USD JPY
The USD traded 0.46% higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 101.97. Earlier during the week, the Japanese Yen advanced after the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, expressed confidence in the nation’s economic recovery. Furthermore, he shrugged off concerns on the recent appreciation in the Yen and indicated that the central bank’s easing measures are having a positive effect on pushing inflation to the BoJ’s 2.0% target. Additionally, on expected lines, the central bank maintained its key interest rate at record low levels. In economic news, machinery orders in Japan jumped, while the all industry activity index rose in March. The coincident index advanced more-than-expected to a reading of 114.5 in March. Japan’s total merchandised trade deficit shrank 7.8% (YoY) in April. Moreover, the BoJ, in its monthly economic survey, projected that the Japanese economy would continue to recover at its current moderate pace. The pair traded at a high of 102.02 and a low of 100.82. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.19, with the next support expected at 100.40. The first resistance is at 102.39, and the next at 102.80.

During the later course of the week, market participants would eye the Japanese consumer price inflation data which could prove a key determinant for the Yen.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.35% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.8958 in the last week, as positive US economic data supported the dollar. In a key development, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) President, Thomas Jordan, stated that the Swiss economy still remains vulnerable to risks posed by a potential failure of its two biggest banks, UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. On the economic front, the Swiss National Bank’s M3 money supply advanced 8.0% (YoY) in April, weaker than the 9.1% rise seen in March. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8973 and a low of 0.8897. The first support is at 0.8912, and the next at 0.8867. Resistance exists first at 0.8988, and then at 0.9019.

Apart from external cues, traders would keep an eye this week on Swiss economic data which includes trade, UBS consumption and KOF leading indicator. Also on traders radar would be Swiss first quarter growth data.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded flat against the CAD and closed at 1.0861. Earlier during the week, the Loonie came under pressure after the Canadian wholesale and retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, adding to a string of disappointing data. According to the Statistics Canada, retails sales recorded a 0.1% drop in March versus market expectations for a 0.3% gain, with sales dipping to C$41.07 billion ($37.68 billion) for the month. The soft retail sales data, followed weak wholesale sales that unexpectedly declined 0.4% in March, missing forecasts for a 0.4% gain. However, the Canadian Dollar firmed against the greenback on Friday, after domestic annual inflation rose as expected to the central bank's target of 2% in April, suggesting that a rate cut by the BoC is off the table. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0943 and a low of 1.0848 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0825, with the next at 1.0789. The first resistance is at 1.0920, while the next is at 1.0979.

Following the release of uninspiring retail sales and wholesale trade data last week and lackluster exports data earlier, market participants would keenly wait Canada’s March GDP data this week that would throw light on the state of nation’s economy.

AUD USD
AUD traded 1.38% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9231, after the RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle, cautioned that the Australian Dollar would depreciate due to weak capital inflows in the Australian economy, amid slowdown in mining investment. Meanwhile, in the minutes of the RBA’s latest policy meeting, the central bank reinforced its plans to keep interest rate at the current levels for the foreseeable future. In economic news, the CB leading indicator registered a flat reading in March, while the Westpac consumer confidence index slipped to a reading of 92.9 in May, the lowest level since August 2011. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9369 and a low of 0.9207. The first support is at 0.9169, and the next at 0.9107. The first resistance is at 0.9331, and the next at 0.9431.

Going forward, the Westpac leading index, HIA new home sales and private sector data scheduled this week will be on investors’ radar.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 0.07% lower against the USD and closed at USD1292.56, as better-than-expected US data added to signs of a recovery, pushing the greenback higher. On Friday, a noted broking house reiterated its bearish outlook on the yellow metal, citing strength in the US economy and forecasted average 2014 gold prices of $1,261 per ounce and of $1,163 for 2015. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine remained in focus, as Ukraine held its crucial Presidential election on Sunday 25. Exit poll results showed a decisive win for pro-European candidate, Petro Poroshenko, raising hopes of political stability in Ukraine. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1305.59 and a low of 1283.51 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1282.18 and the next at 1271.81. The first resistance is at 1304.26, while the next is at 1315.97.

Ahead this week, investors will focus on the revised first quarter GDP data in the US for further indications on the strength of the nation’s economy.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 2.28% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD104.35, as conflicts in Libya continued to keep major oilfields closed and amid lingering concerns between Russia and the West/Ukraine during the week. However, tensions eased slightly over Ukraine following a Presidential election on Sunday, and the preliminary results highlighted a clear win for pro-European candidate, Petro Poroshenko. Meanwhile, better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data from the US and China provided strong support to crude oil prices, boosting optimism for future oil demand growth from world’s top two economies.  Oil prices also rose after the Energy Information Administration reported a 7.2 million barrels drop in the US crude supplies for the week ended May 16, while the American Petroleum Institute reported that the crude inventories dropped by 10.3 million barrels. Oil traded at a high of 104.50 and a low of 102.03 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 102.75, while the next support exists at 101.16. The first resistance is at 105.22, and the next at 106.10.

In the upcoming week, oil traders would pay close attention to US durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and GDP data coupled with outcome of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting for further directions to the oil prices.

Good trades.
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