RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

23/06/2014

Weekly Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update

The greenback failed to garner traction against most of the major currencies last week, as Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish outlook on the US economy prompted traders to shun the safe haven currency. The Fed trimmed its growth estimates on the world’s largest economy by projecting the US economy to register growth between 2.1% to 2.3% this year, down from its earlier forecast of economic growth between 2.8% to 3.0%. Moreover, the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen, at a press conference, following the central bank’s decision to taper its quantitative easing package by another $10 billion, hinted that the US Fed would not raise its short-term interest rates from record lows anytime soon.
In economic news, official data showed that jobless claims in the US economy fell by 6,000, more than market expectations, in the week ended June 14. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index advanced to an 8-month high of 17.8 in May. Separately, the CB leading indicators rose 0.5% (MoM) in May, for the fourth straight month. Consumer prices in the US rose at their fastest pace on an annual basis in May, reflecting broad-based price growth.
In the midst of deflationary concerns surrounding the Euro-zone, the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President, Vitor Constancio hinted that the central bank could roll out an asset purchase programme in case of a situation where the risk of deflationary pressures increases further in the bloc.
The Pound advanced, after the Bank of England (BoE) minutes offered a hawkish view of its plan to hike interest rates. The minutes also revealed that the central bank policymakers voted unanimously to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and maintain the asset purchase programme at £375 billion.
The Japanese Yen gained traction, after the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest policy meeting, revealed that the members of the monetary policy board believe that the nation's economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery.
Meanwhile, at its policy meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its interest rate close to zero and reiterated its pledge to intervene in the currency market to prevent the Swiss Franc from strengthening beyond 1.20 against the Euro. The SNB Governor, Thomas Jordan hinted at the possibility to introduce negative interest rates to address domestic deflationary pressures in case situation demands.
The Aussie Dollar backpedalled, after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest policy meeting gave a pessimistic view about the domestic economy.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.44% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3600. The greenback lost ground after the US Fed lowered its 2014 economic growth forecast and dashed any expectations of an early interest rate hikes. In the Euro-zone, the ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio hinted that the central bank stands ready to deploy additional unconventional instruments, including asset-purchase programme, to tackle soft inflation. Separately, the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, urged the ECB to implement quantitative easing, if inflation in the bloc remains low for a protracted period of time. In economic news, the Euro-zone employment grew for the second straight quarter in the first three months of 2014, while annual consumer inflation rate dropped to a five-year low level of 0.5% in May. Construction output in the region expanded 0.8% (MoM) in April. The German ZEW economic sentiment deteriorated for the sixth consecutive month in June, even as the index on current economic situation rose to a level of 67.7, the highest since July 2011. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3644 and a low of 1.3512. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3527, with the next support expected at 1.3453. The first resistance is at 1.3659, and the next at 1.3717.

Going forward, manufacturing and services PMIs across the Europe will provide further cues to the Euro.

GBP USD
The GBP advanced 0.27% against the USD last week and closed at 1.7013, after the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting hinted at the possibility for the central bank to raise interest rates before the end of 2014. Furthermore, the minutes revealed that all Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted unanimously to keep the BoE's benchmark interest rate at a 0.5% and the size of its bond-purchase programme at £375 billion. Moreover, the MPC member, Martin Weale, stated that the central bank should start raising its interest rates soon, while another BoE policymaker, Ian McCafferty, echoed similar view that a rate hike will be dependent on the economic performance going ahead. In economic news, retail sales in the UK dropped in May, for the first time since January, while the CBI industrial order expectations improved more than market expectations to a 6-month high in April. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK eased to a 55-month low in May. The pair traded at a high of 1.7064 and a low of 1.6920 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6934, with the next at 1.6855. Resistance exists first at 1.7078, and then at 1.7143.

Ahead this week, market participants will keep a close watch on the final UK GDP data for the first quarter of 2014. Also inflation hearings and housing report will be crucial for the Pound.

USD JPY
The USD finished a tad higher against the JPY to close at 102.07, after remaining under pressure for most of the week, following the Fed’s decision to slash its 2014 economic growth forecast for the US economy. Meanwhile, the minutes of the BoJ latest monetary policy meeting held in May revealed that policymakers were of the view that the central bank’s massive policy measures are having the desired effects on the economy. Economic data showed that, total merchandise trade deficit in Japan widened to ¥909.0 billion in May. Japan's leading economic index declined to a level of 106.5 in April, its lowest reading since March 2013, while its coincident index stood unchanged at 111.1 in April. All industry activity fell more-than-expected 4.3% (MoM) in April, following a 1.5% rise in the previous month. The pair traded at a high of 102.37 and a low of 101.72. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.73, with the next support expected at 101.39. The first resistance is at 102.39, and the next at 102.71.

Yen traders are expected to remain busy this week, amid a barrage of domestic macroeconomic news including Japanese industrial production, unemployment, retail trade and consumer price inflation data.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.56% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8951 in the last week. The Swiss Franc rose after the SNB kept its key interest rate unchanged at zero and reiterated its pledge to intervene in the currency market to prevent the Swiss Franc from surpassing 1.20 against the Euro. The central bank further stated that it is prepared to purchase foreign currency in unlimited quantities and take further measures including negative interest rate, if necessary. Furthermore, the SNB President, Thomas Jordan, projected that the Swiss economy would continue with its moderate pace of recovery in coming quarters, despite an extremely challenging climate due to weak growth in the Euro-area. In economic releases, the ZEW survey on the economic expectation from the Swiss economy fell to an 11-month low reading of 4.8 in June. Moreover, the State Secretariat for Economics (SECO) trimmed its growth estimates on the Swiss economy to 2.0% for 2014 and 2.6% for 2015, from its earlier projections of 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9014 and a low of 0.8911. The first support is at 0.8903, and the next at 0.8856. Resistance exists first at 0.9006, and then at 0.9062.

Ahead this week, market participants will keep a close watch on Swiss trade balance report along with a slew of macroeconomic releases in the US for further direction.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.89% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.0758, after the US Fed lowered its growth forecast for 2014 and stated that it might keep interest rates near its current record low levels for some more time. Meanwhile, the Loonie jumped against the greenback on Friday, following the release of record-high retail sales and higher-than-expected inflation data in Canada. Retail sales rose 1.1% (MoM) in April, exceeding market expectations for a 0.6% gain and after an increase of 0.1% in March. A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in Canada rose 0.5% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.2% gain and following a 0.3% rise in April. In other economic data, wholesale sales in Canada rose 1.2% (MoM) in May, compared to market expectations for a 0.5% rise in April, after falling 0.3% (MoM) in the previous month. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0898 and a low of 1.0749 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0705, with the next at 1.0653. 
The first resistance is at 1.0854, while the next is at 1.0951.

With a light economic calendar, the Loonie traders would focus on global economic news for further guidance.

AUD USD
AUD traded 0.15% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9388, following the release of the minutes of the RBA’s June board meeting. The minutes revealed that the central bank would keep its current accommodative monetary policy in place for foreseeable future, citing a weak investment environment in the Australian mining sector. The minutes further cautioned that a stronger Australian dollar could weigh on the nation’s growth prospects.  Sentiments towards Aussie Dollar were also dented, after the RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, opined that the unemployment rate in Australia is likely to remain relatively high for the next two years. In economic news, the CB leading index in Australia fell 0.1% in April, while Westpac leading index edged up 0.1% in May, following a 0.5% drop in the preceding month. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9433 and a low of 0.9320. The first support is at 0.9328, and the next at 0.9267. The first resistance is at 0.9441, and the next at 0.9493.

With not much on the domestic economic calendar during the next week, the direction of the AUD is likely to be determined from external factors.

Gold
The yellow metal extended its previous week’s rally, rising 2.97% to close at USD1314.85, buoyed by dovish comments from the US Fed chief Janet Yellen and amid concerns that the US may be dragged deeper into Iraq crisis. The US Fed on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.00-0.25% and shaved another $10 billion from its monthly bond-buying program, in-line with market expectations. The greenback came under pressure after the central bank hinted that it might delay its process to hike interest rates and trimmed its growth-forecast on the US economy for 2014. Gold prices also advanced as traders continued to fret over lingering geo-political turmoil in Iraq. In other gold related news, China Gold Association President, Xin Song projected private sector gold demand in China, the world’s second largest consumer of gold, to remain flat to slightly lower in 2014. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1322.41 and a low of 1258.14 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1274.52 and the next at 1234.20. The first resistance is at 1338.79, while the next is at 1362.74.

In the week ahead, traders would focus on the US macro-economic indicators for further guidance to gold prices.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 0.33% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD107.26, propelled by ongoing tensions in Iraq that threatens to cause disruptions in the supply of the commodity from the nation, the second largest producer of oil in the OPEC. Tensions escalated even as the US intervened and agreed to send military advisers to Iraq in an effort to end the violence. Oil prices also rose after the Energy Information Administration reported 579,000 barrels drop in the US crude stockpiles to 386.5 million barrels for the week ended June 13. Also, the American Petroleum Institute indicated a more-than-expected 5.7 million barrels drop in the US crude stockpiles for the similar period. Oil traded at a high of 107.73 and a low of 105.32 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 105.81, while the next support exists at 104.36. The first resistance is at 108.22, and the next at 109.18.

Ahead this week, existing and new home sales data along with durable goods and final Q1 GDP data from the US would remain on investors’ radar. Oil traders will also keep a close eye on developments in Iraq.

Good trades.
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