RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

21/07/2014

Weekly Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update

The greenback rallied against major currencies last week, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) chief, Janet Yellen indicated that the central bank could accelerate plans to raise interest rates if US data on inflation and employment continues to improve more rapidly than expected. However, she further suggested that recovery in the nation still remains fragile and needs support in the form of easy monetary policy. Also, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard opined that with the US economy attaining normalcy, the central bank may act soon to avoid any economic problems that could arise in the near future.
The Fed’s Beige Book survey released during the week, revealed that the economy grew in all regions of the US in June and early July, buoyed by rise in consumer spending.
Meanwhile, “risk-off” sentiment prevailed among investors as concerns over tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continued to support safe-haven demand. On Thursday, a civil airplane of the Malaysian Airlines was shot down over disputed Ukrainian region, killing all the people aboard, with the US blaming Ukrainian pro-Russian separatists for the act. The crash came a day after the US and the European Union announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia. Markets were also jittery after Israel late Thursday announced ground offensive in Gaza.
The USD came under pressure on Friday, after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to a four-month low in July, while the Conference Board’s leading index in the US rose less than expected in June.
The Euro fell against the USD, after data indicated that inflation in the Euro-zone stayed low as expected in June. Meanwhile, disappointing industrial production data added to evidence that economic growth in the region is slowing. The common currency also came under pressure on rising risk aversion among investors, as tensions in the Eastern Europe region resurfaced, following news of attack on a civilian flight above the Ukrainian airspace.
The Pound failed to gain traction against its US counterpart, after the testimony by the Fed chief supported the greenback, while “risk-off” sentiment prevailed among investors amid geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the Eastern Europe.
The Japanese Yen came under pressure, after minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) June policy meeting indicated that majority of policymakers agreed on continuing its stimulus measures to achieve its inflation target of 2%. Furthermore, the policymakers insisted that the central bank should closely monitor geopolitical risks posed by Ukraine and Iraq on the Japanese economy.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.62% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3524, following the recent spate of disappointing economic reports from the Eurozone. Industrial production dropped sharply in May, reinforcing concerns over economic recovery in the region. Construction output declined markedly in May, after rebounding in the previous month. Also, the current account surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted €19.5 billion in May from €21.6 billion in the previous month. Data released on Thursday confirmed that inflation in the region remained below the ECB’s target for the ninth consecutive month in June. The final consumer price index held steady at 0.5% as initially estimated in June. Moreover, the German economic confidence weakened for the seventh consecutive month in July. Earlier in the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi expressed concerns over a stronger Euro and urged that it would hurt the recovery process in the Eurozone. He reiterated his earlier stance that policymakers are committed to use “unconventional measures”, if required. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3641 and a low of 1.3490. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3462, with the next support expected at 1.3401. The first resistance is at 1.3613, and the next at 1.3703.

Ahead this week, investors have their plate full with a raft of manufacturing PMI data scheduled for release across the Europe. Additionally, the Eurozone consumer confidence data and the German Ifo sentiment indices will be closely watched.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.16% lower against the USD and closed at 1.7088, despite positive economic data from the UK. Data revealed that consumer price inflation in the UK rose more than expected to 1.9% in June, tilting the scale in favor of the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rate sooner than expected. Moreover, labor market report indicated that the unemployment rate in the UK dropped to 6.5% for three months to May, while the number of people seeking jobless benefits also declined more than expected in June. The GBP also came under pressure, amid increased demand for save haven assets as geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West escalated. Moreover, increased ground offensive by Israel in Gaza, prompted traders to stay away from riskier assets. The pair traded at a high of 1.7192 and a low of 1.7036 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.7019, with the next at 1.6949. Resistance exists first at 1.7175, and then at 1.7261.

In the week ahead, UK’s preliminary GDP data for the second quarter and the minutes of BoE’s latest monetary policy meeting would be crucial for determining short term trend in the Pound.

USD JPY
The USD traded marginally higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 101.34. The Yen came under pressure, following the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest monetary policy meeting. The minutes indicated that nation’s sluggish exports and geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine and Iraq might hamper Japan’s inflation in the near term. Additionally, the minutes indicated that quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures has been exerting its intended effects, and the bank will continue this measures to achieve the price stability target of 2.0%.  In economic news, Japan's department store sales fell 4.6% (YoY) in June, marking the third successive month of decline in sales. The pair traded at a high of 101.81 and a low of 101.09. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.01, with the next support expected at 100.69. The first resistance is at 101.74, and the next at 102.14.

Ahead this week, market participants would eye the Japanese consumer price inflation data along with domestic trade, leading economic and coincident indicators.

USD CHF
The USD traded 0.71% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.8985 in the last week, after the Fed chief, Janet Yellen, signaled that the central bank would raise interest rates sooner than expected, if the US data on labor and inflation shows sustained improvement. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc lost ground, after the ZEW survey reported that economic expectations in Switzerland declined to 18-month low level of 0.1 in July, compared to a reading of 4.8 in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the economic expectations index to climb to 5.0. A separate data revealed that the producer and import price index dropped 0.8% in June, in line with market expectations. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9005 and a low of 0.8898. The first support is at 0.8920, and the next at 0.8856. Resistance exists first at 0.9027, and then at 0.9070.

Apart from external cues, traders would keep an eye on the Swiss trade balance data for June.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded tad lower against the CAD and closed at 1.0733. Earlier, the Canadian dollar came under pressure, after the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its overnight interest rate at 1.0%, in line with market expectations. Moreover, the BoC Governor indicated that the Canadian economy is growing slowly than previously thought and will take longer time to fully recover. However, the CAD rebounded on Friday, as upbeat Canadian wholesales data lent support to the Loonie. A separate data revealed that consumer price index in the nation rose 2.4% from a year earlier, the fastest in more than two years, trumping market estimates for a 2.3% increase. Other data revealed that the Canadian manufacturing sales registered its strongest gain in almost a year and climbed 1.6% in May, surpassing market expectations of a 1.0% rise and reversing previous month’s 0.2% decline. Existing home sales in Canada increased 0.8% (MoM) in June, while the Teranet and National Bank of Canada reported that housing price index in Canada rose 4.4% (YoY) in June. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0796 and a low of 1.0706 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0694, with the next at 1.0655. The first resistance is at 1.0784, while the next is at 1.0835.

Moving ahead, consumer price inflation and retail sales data from Canada and a slew of economic releases from the US will be the key market triggers.

AUD USD
The AUD finished slightly lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9390. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy meeting revealed concerns among policymakers about non-mining growth and the elevated value of the Australian Dollar. The minutes also indicated that consumer demand might remain subdued in the coming months. However, positive economic data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner boosted investors demand for the AUD. Data revealed that industrial production in China registered a 9.2% rise in June, while retail sales rose 12.4%. Moreover, upbeat Chinese economic growth data for the second quarter also supported the Aussie Dollar. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9412 and a low of 0.9329. The first support is at 0.9342, and the next at 0.9294. The first resistance is at 0.9425, and the next at 0.9460.

This week, the Australian inflation data will be on investors’ radar. Also, speech by the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens will be monitored closely. Additionally, preliminary manufacturing PMI data from China would be a key determinant for the Aussie.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.97% lower against the USD and closed at USD1311.00, as the greenback strengthened triggered by Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s comments that the interest rate in the US would be raised sooner than expected, while traders also took advantage of recent spike in gold prices for profit-taking. Nonetheless, the losses were limited as the greenback came under pressure on Friday, after data revealed that US consumer sentiment index fell unexpectedly in July, while leading economic index in the US rose less than expected in June. Continued tensions in Eastern Europe and Middle East also supported gold prices. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1339.90 and a low of 1292.60 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1289.10 and the next at 1267.20. The first resistance is at 1336.40, while the next is at 1361.80.

Looking ahead, gold traders will focus on inflation and durable goods order numbers along with other economic data from the US.

Crude Oil
Oil prices surged 2.28% last week and closed at USD103.13, amid growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Middle East. On Wednesday, the US and the European Union announced fresh sanctions on Russia, over its support of rebels in Ukraine. Tensions escalated on Thursday, after the Malaysian passenger plane was shot down in Eastern Ukraine, raising concerns that a wider conflict or further sanctions could disrupt supplies from Russia. Oil prices spiked further after Israel send ground troops into the Gaza Strip, intensifying turmoil in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil-producing region. A higher than expected drop in weekly US crude inventories also supported crude oil prices. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude stockpiles declined 7.5 million barrels for the week ended July 11. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drop of 4.8 million barrels in crude inventories for the same week. Oil traded at a high of 103.94 and a low of 99.01 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 100.11, while the next support exists at 97.10. The first resistance is at 105.04, and the next at 106.96.

In the week ahead, oil traders will keep a track on manufacturing data from the Eurozone and China for further direction. Additionally, US durable goods orders and housing data will be eyed for further direction.

Happy pips.
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