RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

22/09/2014

Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update

The greenback recorded another week of gains against most of its major peers, as traders continued to speculate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lay the ground work to raise interest rates sooner than expected. Moreover, better than expected US economic data also boosted the local currency.
At its policy meeting last week, the central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged and announced a reduction to its bond purchase programme by another $10 billion. However, gains were capped as the US Fed Chair, Janet Yellen gave no indications over the timing of an interest rate hike and indicated that the Fed is likely to retain its current policy stance for a considerable time, amid slack in the US labor market along with weak wage growth.
Data released in the US revealed that the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators showed a continued increase in August, though the pace of growth slowed. Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell more than anticipated for the week ended September 13. The NAHB/Wells Fargo report revealed that the US homebuilder confidence index jumped to its highest level in almost nine years in September, while the business activity in the New York manufacturing sector expanded at a robust pace in September.
The US Dollar also rose on rising risk aversion, amid concerns over the outlook for economic growth in Europe. Earlier last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its interim economic assessment report trimmed its growth outlook for major developed nations, indicating that a moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area.
The Euro continue to remain under pressure, plummeting 1.0% and 1.2% against the US Dollar and the Pound, respectively, last week after the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly cut interest rates to record lows across the Eurozone earlier this month, and implemented fresh measures in an attempt to shore up inflation in the currency bloc. The common currency also fell after lenders in the bloc borrowed less than expected from the ECB under its new low cost loan program.
The Pound rebounded against the US Dollar, after weeks of uncertainty came to an end after Scottish voters rejected a referendum on independence and opted to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK). Furthermore, the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting minutes revealed that two policy makers, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale, continued to vote for an immediate hike in interest rate.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 1.03% lower against the USD and closed at 1.2829, after the ECB indicated that it allotted €82.6 billion in its new Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO), well below market expectations of the €100 to €150 billion allotment. In a key development, Moody’s maintained its ‘Aa1’ rating for the French debt but warned that the outlook was ‘Negative’, citing significant risks in the government's efforts at restructuring to deal with its heavy fiscal challenges. Additionally, the OECD cut its economic growth forecast on the Euro zone to 0.8% from a 1.2% growth projected earlier. Economic data showed that the region’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed unexpectedly in July, amid drop in exports after Russia banned imports from the EU. Also, the German ZEW economic confidence index slipped in September, while the Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment followed a similar downturn. Meanwhile, the final consumer inflation reading in the Euro zone was better than expected for August. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.2996 and a low of 1.2829. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2773, with the next support expected at 1.2718. The first resistance is at 1.2940, and the next at 1.3052.

Looking ahead, a slew of economic data including manufacturing and services PMI from the Eurozone and its member nations and consumer confidence and IFO business climate data in Germany will keep Euro investors on their toes. Additionally, the ECB President, Mario Draghi’s speech will also grab market attention this week.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.12% higher against the USD and closed at 1.6288, as Pound traders breathed a sigh of relief after Scotland referendum results showed that majority of Scottish voters decided to stay with the UK. Additionally, better-than-expected employment and consumer price data also aided Sterling. The unemployment rate in the UK dropped to its lowest level since 2008 and wage growth showed an improvement. Consumer prices rose 0.4% (MoM) in August, reversing the 0.3% drop in the prior month. Meanwhile, the minutes of the BoE latest policy meeting revealed that policymakers remain divided on interest rate decision as two members, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voted to raise key rate by 25 basis points. The pair traded at a high of 1.6525 and a low of 1.6162 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6125, with the next at 1.5962. Resistance exists first at 1.6488, and then at 1.6688.

With the Scottish referendum out of the way, traders would see if the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, confers additional powers to Scotland as promised by him earlier. Also, traders would keep a tab on domestic housing, mortgage approvals and consumer credit data for further direction.

USD JPY
The USD traded 1.58% higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 109.04. The Yen came under pressure after the Japanese government lowered its overall assessment on the economy for the first time in five months in September, citing stagnation in private consumption growth. Moreover, economic data indicated that all industry activity in Japan unexpectedly fell in July. Also, Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of ¥948.5 billion in August, remaining in negative for a record 26th consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that the Japanese economy is only halfway and that the bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative easing, to achieve the price stability target of 2%. The pair traded at a high of 109.48 and a low of 106.81. The pair is expected to find its first support at 107.40, with the next support expected at 105.77. 

The first resistance is at 110.08, and the next at 111.12.
With a light Japanese economic calendar this week, a slew of economic releases from the US will likely hold the key for the pair.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.81% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9408 in the last week, as speculations that the US Fed will raise interest rates sooner than expected continued to fuel investor demand for the dollar. At its policy meeting the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reaffirmed its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per EUR and left interest rate unchanged at 0.0-0.25%. The SNB expressed its willingness to do more to defend the Franc, indicating that it is prepared to purchase foreign currency in unlimited quantities and if necessary, will take further measures immediately. In the Swiss economic news, trade surplus fell to CHF 1.39 billion in August from CHF 3.90 billion in the previous month. Producer and import price index in Switzerland dropped for the eleventh consecutive month in August. Also the ZEW economic expectations turned negative for the first time in September since January 2013. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9434 and a low of 0.9300. The first support is at 0.9327, and the next at 0.9247. Resistance exists first at 0.9461, and then at 0.9515.

Apart from external cues, traders would keep an eye on the UBS consumption and the KOF leading indicator. Additionally, the SNB quarterly bulletin for the third quarter would also remain key.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 1.17% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.0963. The Canadian Dollar gained ground against the greenback after data showed that the annual rate of core inflation in Canada rose at the fastest rate in over two years in August. Data released earlier in the week revealed that industrial shipments in Canada rose at its strongest pace since February 2013 in July. Moreover, the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, last week indicated that the Canadian economy will return to its natural growth track once growth in exports and business investment replace the current household spending led growth. Additionally, he stated that the nation’s exports would improve as business investments in its largest trading partner, the US are increasing at a robust pace. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1100 and a low of 1.0886 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0866, with the next at 1.0769. The first resistance is at 1.108, while the next is at 1.1197.

Traders would focus on retail sales data from Canada ahead in the week.

AUD USD
AUD traded 1.25% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8925. In the minutes of its September policy meeting published last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated its decision to keep interest rates on hold for an extended period of time and indicated that the exchange rate remains “above most estimates”. The minutes also revealed rising concerns by policy makers over soaring house prices in Australia. Separately, the RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent opined that he remain confident that the new business investment would boost Australia’s economic growth. However, he cautioned that the high Australian Dollar may be holding it back and suggested that a further decline in the domestic currency would support demand for local producers that compete with imports.  During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9114 and a low of 0.8920. The first support is at 0.8859, and the next at 0.8792. The first resistance is at 0.9053, and the next at 0.9180.

The Financial Stability Review report to be released by the RBA would remain key this week, as it would provide the bank's assessment of the current condition of the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.21% lower against the USD and closed at USD1216.60, as the US dollar rallied and as gold traders remain worried that the US central bank policy makers may be readying for faster pace of interest rate hikes than previously projected. At its policy meeting, Fed officials trimmed its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, pushing central bank's plans to conclude the stimulus effort at its next meeting in October. Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated that it would keep interest rates low for a “considerable time”. However, in its forecast suggested that when policymakers decide to hike the federal funds rate, they could do so more quickly than previously expected. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1243.20 and a low of 1214.20 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1206.13 and the next at 1195.67. The first resistance is at 1235.13, while the next is at 1253.67.

In the week ahead, market participants will keenly await data from the US, especially the growth and durable goods order reports for hints on the strength of the nation’s recovery.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 0.15% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD92.41. A weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude stockpiles in the US unexpectedly rose by 3.7 million barrels to 362.3 million barrels in the week ended 12 September. Separately, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the US crude inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels to 362.4 million barrels. Separately, the API in its monthly report indicated that the US crude oil production rose for the eighth consecutive month and remained above 8.0 million barrels per day since February. Oil traded at a high of 95.19 and a low of 90.87 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 90.46, while the next support exists at 88.50. The first resistance is at 94.78, and the next at 97.14.

In the week ahead, traders would keep an eye on preliminary data on manufacturing activity in China. Also, economic data from the US will remain crucial.

Happy pips.
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