RISK WARNING : Devido ao factor de risco ser muito alto no trading no mercado Forex, somente os fundos livres devem ser usados para este trading. Se você não tiver o capital extra, que pode perder, não deve fazer trading no mercado Forex. O trading no Forex é conveniente somente para os traders institucionais ou traders privados experientes que podem resistir a perdas financeiras e que podem exceder o valor de margem ou depósitos. O investimento implica riscos substanciais, incluindo a possibilidade de perda total de capital e outras perdas que podem ser inaceitáveis para muitas pessoas. O governo não protege investimentos de perdas no mercado, diferentemente de poupança e de contas correntes num banco. Vários instrumentos de mercados financeiros têm diferentes tipos de riscos e de vários níveis. Trading em sistema electrónico pode ser diferente não somente de trading num mercado de leilão, mas também de outros sistemas de trading electrónico. Se você executa transacções usando um sistema electrónico de trading, estará exposto a riscos relativos a este sistema, incluindo falhas de software e hardware (programas de computador). O resultado desta falha pode ser que sua ordem não tenha sido efectuada conforme as suas instruções ou não tenha sido executada. Transacções realizadas em mercados de jurisdições estrangeiras, incluindo os mercados anteriormente ligados a um mercado nacional, podem expor você a riscos adicionais. Tais mercados podem estar sujeitos a regras e leis, que oferecem outras condições de protecção ou debilitá-los. Sua autoridade reguladora local não será capaz de forçar o cumprimento das regras das autoridades reguladoras, ou dos mercados em outras jurisdições onde suas transacções foram efectuadas. Você precisa obter a informação completa sobre tipos de compensação existente, as regras aplicáveis na jurisdição do seu país e outras jurisdições relevantes, antes de começar a fazer trading. Nenhum sistema de negociação "seguro" foi descoberto/reconhecido e ninguém pode garantir lucros ou liberdade de perda. Qualquer desempenho apresentado neste blog, não garante resultados futuros. Nenhuma representação é feita que qualquer conta é susceptível de obter lucros ou perdas semelhantes aos mostrados. De facto, existem diferenças acentuadas entre os resultados de desempenho anteriores e os resultados futuros subsequentemente alcançados por qualquer configuração de conta particular. Existem inúmeros outros factores relacionados com os mercados em geral ou com a implementação de qualquer configuração de conta específica que não possa ser totalmente contabilizada na preparação de resultados de desempenho anteriores e que possam afectar negativamente os resultados futuros de negociação. Uma vez que a negociação com êxito depende de muitos elementos, incluindo mas não limitado a uma configuração de conta . Por favor, perceba o risco envolvido como qualquer investimento e consulte Profissionais de Investimento antes de equacionar investir/operar.
Because the risk factor is very high in Forex trading, only free funds should be used for this trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can lose, you should not do trading in the Forex market. Forex trading is only convenient for institutional traders or experienced private traders who can withstand financial losses and who may exceed the margin amount or deposits. The investment entails substantial risks, including the possibility of total loss of capital and other losses that may be unacceptable to many people. The government does not protect investments from losses in the market, unlike savings and checking accounts at a bank. Several financial market instruments have different types of risks and different levels. Trading in electronic systems may differ not only from trading in an auction market, but also from other electronic trading systems. If you execute transactions using an electronic trading system, you will be exposed to risks related to this system, including software and hardware failures (computer programs). The result of this failure may be that your order has not been carried out according to your instructions or has not been carried out. Transactions in markets of foreign jurisdictions, including markets formerly linked to a domestic market, may expose you to additional risks. Such markets may be subject to rules and laws, which offer other conditions of protection or weaken them. Your local regulatory authority will not be able to force you to comply with the rules of regulatory authorities, or markets in other jurisdictions where your transactions were made. You need to get complete information on existing compensation types, applicable rules in your country's jurisdiction and other relevant jurisdictions, before you start trading. No "safe" trading system has been discovered / recognized and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. Any performance featured on this blog does not guarantee future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to make profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are sharp differences between the previous performance results and future results subsequently achieved by any particular account configuration. There are a number of other factors relating to markets in general or to the implementation of any particular account configuration that can not be fully accounted for in the preparation of past performance results that could adversely affect future trading results. Since trading successfully depends on many elements, including but not limited to an account setup. Please note the risk involved as any investment and consult Investment Professionals before considering investing / operating.
Cumprimentos Marco Henriques

11/01/2016

Weekly Forex Update

Weekly Forex Update
Last week, two leading gauges of US manufacturing activity, Markit manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing index, both showed a decline in manufacturing sector productivity in December, thus ending the year on a disappointing note. The nation’s manufacturing sector has been struggling for quite some time now to combat the negative impact of a strong greenback and anemic global demand. Moreover, construction spending fell for the first time in nearly two years, suggesting only moderate economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2015. On the other hand, non-farm payrolls surged and unemployment rate held steady at a 7-1/2-year low of 5.0% in December, providing some respite to the US economy.
Separately, release of the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes showed that the Fed officials unanimously agreed to raise short-term interest rates, however some board members voiced worries that inflation could get stuck at dangerously low levels. The minutes also revealed that the board saw gradual increase in interest rates in 2016.
The Euro ended the week on a stronger footing. Macroeconomic data showed that consumer prices in the Eurozone rose at a very slow pace in December, staying well below the ECB’s target of just under 2.0%, as low energy cost kept a lid on inflation growth. Meanwhile, the region’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in four years in November. In contrast, retail sales posted its third consecutive decline during the same month, indicating that wage growth is yet to pick up. Elsewhere, in Germany, unemployment rate remained steady at a level of 6.3% in December, indicating that recovery in the Eurozone’s biggest economy remains on track. On the other hand, consumer prices surprisingly dropped on a monthly basis in December.
The British Pound ended the week in the red, after UK’s Markit manufacturing PMI surprisingly fell to 3-month low level in December, suggesting that the sector will make only a marginal positive contribution to broader economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Additionally, the services index expanded at a slower-than-anticipated pace during the same month. However, it still remains in expansionary territory, indicating that services sector remains the key driver in the nation’s economic growth.
Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, the Caixin manufacturing PMI surprisingly declined for the tenth consecutive month in December. Moreover, the nation’s services index dropped to a 17-month low during the same month, fueling concerns over the health of the world's second-largest economy. On the other hand, consumer price inflation rose in line with market expectations on an annual basis in December while producer prices fell by more than expected.

EURUSD
The EUR traded 0.63% higher against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.0934. On the macroeconomic front, Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI rose to a 20-month high level in December. Additionally, unemployment rate in the region fell for the third straight month to 10.5% in November, its lowest level in four years. However, retail sales unexpectedly declined on a monthly basis in December. Further, consumer prices in the Eurozone rose less-than-expected on an annual basis in December, thus calling for bolder steps from the ECB to bring inflation back to target. Meanwhile, the World Bank projected the world economy to expand by 2.9% in 2016, down from the forecast of 3.3% it made in June. Additionally, the bank forecasted the Eurozone economy to expand 1.7% and the US economy to expand by 2.7% in 2016, down 0.1 point from its June forecast. The EUR hit a high of 1.0947 and a low of 1.0710 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0780 and first resistance at 1.1017. The second support is expected at 1.0627 and second resistance at 1.1101. This week, investors would focus on the Eurozone’s industrial production and trade balance data to gauge the strength in the economy. Additionally, Germany’s real GDP growth data would also be keenly watched by investors.

GBPUSD
The GBP traded 0.82% lower against the USD last week, with the pair closing at 1.4622. In economic news, UK’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to a 3-month low level in December. Further, the Markit services PMI expanded at a slower-than-anticipated pace during the same month. Overall though, the index remains well into the expansionary territory and underlines the fact that the services sector remains the main driver of UK economic growth. Meanwhile, Britain's construction industry picked up in December from a seven-month low in November, helped by a rise in commercial building. In other economic news, UK’s mortgage approvals surprisingly advanced to a 3-month high level in November, while, total trade deficit narrowed in November, on the back of a lower oil import bill. The pair traded at a high of 1.4818 and a low of 1.4533 during the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.4497 and first resistance at 1.4782. The second support is expected at 1.4373 and second resistance at 1.4942. Looking ahead, investors anxiously await the BoE’s interest rate decision, scheduled to be announced this week. Meanwhile, Britain’s industrial and manufacturing production data along with the NIESR GDP Estimate would generate a lot of market attention.

USDJPY
The USD declined against the JPY last week, closing 2.18% lower at 117.57. On the economic front, Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI remained steady in December, indicating that the economy maintained momentum towards the end of 2015. At the same time, the services PMI continued to remain in expansionary territory for the ninth consecutive month, led by a robust increase in new orders. On the other hand, the nation’s preliminary leading and coincident indices declined in November. Separately, the World Bank cut Japan’s 2016 growth forecast by 0.4 points to 1.3%, citing weakness in domestic demand and exports. It further indicated that the nation’s growth pace will slow to 0.9%, down 0.3 points from its earlier June estimate. The pair traded at a high of 120.48 and a low of 117.33 during the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 116.44, followed by 115.31, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 119.59, followed by 121.61. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s trade balance, consumer confidence, machine tool orders and Eco watchers survey data this week.

USDCHF
The USD traded 0.89% lower against the CHF last week, with the pair closing at 0.9927. In economic news, Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 3.4% in December, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the nation’s SVME-purchasing manager’s index rose more-than-expected in December. However, foreign currency reserves dropped during the same month. Further, consumer price inflation dropped more-than-expected to its lowest level since July, on a monthly basis in December. The USD hit a high of 1.0126 and a low of 0.9922 against the CHF in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9858 and first resistance at 1.0061. The second support is expected at 0.9789 and second resistance at 1.0195. Going forward, investors this week would closely monitor Switzerland’s real retail sales data for further cues in the Swiss Franc.

USDCAD
Last week, the USD traded 1.85% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.4096. In macroeconomic news, Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in December, reaching its lowest level since October 2010, led by weak domestic demand and the ongoing uncertainty in the energy sector. Further, the nation’s industrial product price index extended its losing streak, falling for the fourth straight month in November, adding to the sense of general malaise in the Canadian economy. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI contracted for the first time in nine months in December. On the other hand, unemployment rate remained steady at 7.1% in December. Separately, the BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz, indicated that the central bank will continue to run an independent monetary policy aimed at achieving its inflation target of 2.0% and that the Canadian Dollar is likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. During the previous week, the pair traded at a high of 1.4171 and a low of 1.3850. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at 1.3907, followed by 1.3717, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in 1.4228, followed by 1.4360. Moving ahead, market participants would concentrate on Canada’s housing starts, new housing price index and the BoC’s business outlook survey for further direction in the CAD.

AUDUSD
During the previous week, the AUD traded 3.87% lower against the USD and ended at 0.7005.  On the economic front, Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit narrowed in November. However, the nation’s trade balance has now been negative for 20 consecutive months. Further, the nation’s AiG performance of construction index dropped in December, while the the services index declined for the third straight month to reach its lowest level since November 2014, in December. Additionally, building permits in the country declined more-than-expected on a monthly basis in November, indicating the strongest decline in at least a year. Bucking the trend, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose for the fourth consecutive month, signaling that the nation’s consumer sentiment and spending remain healthy. The AUD hit a high of 0.7292 and a low of 0.6981 against the USD in the previous week. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.6893 and first resistance at 0.7205. The second support is expected at 0.6781 and second resistance at 0.7404. Moving ahead, market participants would keep a close eye on Australia’s unemployment rate and home loans data this week.

Gold
Gold traded 4.51% higher during the previous week, closing at USD1108.97 per ounce, as investors looked for solace in the safe-haven asset amid worries over China’s economic growth and mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The precious metal traded at a high of USD1109.90 per ounce and a low of USD1061.50 per ounce in the previous week. Immediate downside, the first support level is seen at USD1077.03 per ounce, followed by USD1045.07 per ounce, while on the upside, the first resistance level situated in USD1125.43 per ounce, followed by USD1141.87 per ounce.

Crude Oil
Last week, crude oil traded 10.18% lower and ended at USD33.27 per barrel, as weak manufacturing data from China fueled concerns of slowing demand from the world’s second largest consumer of oil. Oil prices failed to find support, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) disclosed that crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 5.1 million barrels to 482.3 million barrels in the week ended 01 January, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US oil inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels last week. Further, Baker Hughes weekly rig count report showed that the number of working US oil rigs dropped by 20 to 516 in the week ended 08 January. The commodity traded at a high of USD38.39 per barrel and a low of USD32.10 per barrel in the previous week. Crude oil is expected to witness its first support at USD30.76 per barrel and second support at USD28.28 per barrel, while the first resistance is expected at USD37.05 per barrel and second resistance at USD40.86 per barrel.

Good trades.



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